501
WTPZ41 KNHC 072035
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012026
1100 AM HST SUN JUN 07 2026
THIS MORNING'S IMPRESSIVE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AMANDA'S
SURFACE CENTER HAS QUICKLY DISSIPATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, AND
A COUPLE OF SMALL CELLS IN THE NW PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION ARE ALL
THAT REMAINS OF ITS CLOUD PATTERN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
GENEROUSLY HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. PERSISTENT
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND A DRY MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL SPIN-DOWN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD,
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS. THE
WARM OCEAN, ON THE OTHER HAND, WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO AMANDA
PRODUCING INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
BUT WILL LACK SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THEREFORE, AMANDA
SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LATER TONIGHT.
AMANDA'S INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, 245/4
KT, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE
REMNANTS OF THE CYCLONE DISSIPATE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
NHC FORECAST LIES NEAR THE LATEST GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN, THE
ECMWF/GFS BLEND, AND THE HCCA MULTI-MODEL CORRECTED CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/2100Z 11.3N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 11.1N 136.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 08/1800Z 10.8N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 09/0600Z 10.5N 138.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/1800Z 10.2N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 10/0600Z 10.0N 140.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/1800Z 9.7N 141.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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