034
WTPZ42 KNHC 072041
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022026
300 PM CST SUN JUN 07 2026
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE
SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN ASCAT OVERPASS SHOWED SOME
EAST-WEST ELONGATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. CONVECTIVE BANDING
FEATURES ARE LIMITED, ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY ESTIMATE
REMAINS AT 30 KT IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM
UW-CIMSS.
THE CENTER HAS APPARENTLY NOT MOVED QUITE AS FAR NORTHEASTWARD AS
ESTIMATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS A
RATHER SLOW AND UNCERTAIN 045/3 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN
THE EASTERN SIDE OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE TO THE
WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD RESULT
IN A NORTHWARD TURN TONIGHT, AND THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO
THE LATEST GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN AND A LITTLE TO THE WEST
OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE CYCLONE IS OVER VERY WARM SSTS, GREATER THAN 30 DEG C, AND IN A
MOIST AIR MASS. THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR
OVER THE AREA, ALTHOUGH THE CIRRUS MOTIONS ARE NOT THAT SUGGESTIVE
OF SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR. SINCE THE SYSTEM LACKS A WELL-DEFINED
INNER CORE, IT IS NOT LIKELY TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY SHOWS MODERATE
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WILL
IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF STEEP TERRAIN.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/2100Z 15.7N 99.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 16.2N 99.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 16.8N 99.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0600Z 17.6N 100.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PASCH
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