828
WTPZ42 KNHC 080236
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022026
900 PM CST SUN JUN 07 2026
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE SPRAWLING SYSTEM
WITH A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ORIENTED IN
BANDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS WAS
SUGGESTED BY AN EARLIER AFTERNOON OSCAT PASS THAT INDICATED A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION, BUT A BROAD RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS.
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM
28-41 KT, AND I'D LIKE TO SEE A BIT MORE CONSOLIDATION OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEFORE UPGRADING THE DEPRESSION, SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.
IT IS DIFFICULT THIS EVENING TO PINPOINT THE EXACT CENTER OF THE
BROAD CIRCULATION, BUT BASED ON EARLIER OSCAT DATA AND LAST-LIGHT
VISIBLE IMAGERY, THE POSITION WAS NUDGED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH,
WITH AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 075/2 KT AS IT IS CAUGHT WITHIN THE
LARGER-SCALE MONSOONAL FLOW. OVER THE NEXT 24 H, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PIVOT FROM ITS CURRENT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM FEELS MORE
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS NORTHEAST. THIS
MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF TD 2-E NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO
BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED
A LITTLE EASTWARD EARLY ON, MOSTLY DUE TO THE SHORT-TERM POSITION
ADJUSTMENT, BUT FALLS CLOSE TO THE PRIOR NHC TRACK AFTER LANDFALL,
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK CONSENSUS AIDS TVCE AND HCCA.
THE DEPRESSION ONLY HAS A SHORT WINDOW TO INTENSIFY FURTHER WHILE IT
REMAINS OVER WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE. THE LARGE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, COMBINED WITH SOME MODERATE
EASTERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY THE LARGER MONSOONAL LOW-LEVEL FLOW, WILL
LIKELY TEMPER A FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL.
NONETHELESS, THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN MEXICO, FOLLOWED BY QUICK
WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE HIGH RUGGED TERRAIN OF
MEXICO. HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS THE PRIMARY HAZARD EXPECTED WITH THE
SYSTEM, WHICH IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES AS IT
MOVES INLAND INTO MEXICO.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E WILL
IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON MONDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0300Z 15.3N 99.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 16.0N 99.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 16.8N 99.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/1200Z 17.8N 100.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PAPIN
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