884
WTPZ42 KNHC 080855
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022026
300 AM CST MON JUN 08 2026
THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM HAS LED TO A SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS ORIENTED LINEARLY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE
ELONGATED CIRCULATION, THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME CONVECTIVE
BANDING NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES UNANIMOUSLY SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 35 KT, AND THE DEPRESSION IS
THEREFORE BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BORIS.
BORIS APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED NORTHEASTWARD, INCHING CLOSER TO THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO, WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 040/4 KT.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE BORIS TO TURN NORTHWARD
LATER TODAY AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD BY TONIGHT. ON THIS TRAJECTORY,
THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF GUERRERO,
MEXICO, LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS NEARLY ON TOP OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION AND VERY CLOSE TO THE
VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS.
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT THE SYSTEM'S
BROAD, ELONGATED NATURE AND FAIRLY STRONG EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR
ARE LIKELY TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. ONCE THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE REACHES LAND, THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED
TO OBLITERATE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, AND DISSIPATION IS NOW
FORECAST TO OCCUR BY 36 HOURS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD OF CONCERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM BORIS WILL IMPACT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0900Z 15.9N 99.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 16.3N 99.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 17.4N 100.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BERG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page