393
WTPZ42 KNHC 081455
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022026
900 AM CST MON JUN 08 2026
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE DEEP CONVECTION WITH
TOPS COLDER THAN -80 DEG C, THE CONVECTION IS STILL NOT WELL
ORGANIZED. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS RATHER LINEARLY ORIENTED FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AND CURVED BANDING FEATURES ARE LIMITED.
THE CURRENT ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH OBJECTIVE SATCON ESTIMATES AND A BLEND OF OTHER ESTIMATES FROM
UW-CIMSS.
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. HOWEVER, IT
IS ESTIMATED THAT BORIS HAS TURNED NORTHWARD WHILE CONTINUING TO
MOVE QUITE SLOWLY WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 360/3 KT.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE BORIS TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK, THE CENTER OF THE STORM
SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF GUERRERO, MEXICO, THIS EVENING AND THEN
MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO.
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO THE ELONGATED CLOUD PATTERN
AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RAPID WEAKENING OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES
THE COAST. THE THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD
OF CONCERN, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM BORIS WILL IMPACT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 16.0N 99.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 16.6N 99.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 17.7N 100.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PASCH
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