247
WTPZ43 KNHC 081456
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032026
900 AM CST MON JUN 08 2026
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OFF OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA THIS
MORNING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT, WITH COLDEST
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES RANGING BETWEEN -85 TO -90 DEGREES C.
OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED A CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS
REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB IS A T2.0 AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 6 KT. A RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOST NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW THE
DEPRESSION TURNING WEST TO NORTHWEST, GENERALLY PARALLELING THE
CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTLINE. HOWEVER, THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND IS ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE, SHOWING THE DEPRESSION MAINTAINING A
NORTHWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE, BETWEEN THE GDMI AND HCCA, SHOWING THE CYCLONE
PARALLELING THE COAST AND MOVING INLAND OVER GUATEMALA IN 72 HOURS.
STRONG, NORTHERLY, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT ANY
SHORT-TERM POSSIBILITIES OF INTENSIFICATION. IN ABOUT A DAY OR SO
THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ABATE, AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THE
CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KT AT
60 HOURS. ONCE THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND, RAPID WEAKENING IS WILL
OCCUR AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN ELEVATED
TERRAIN REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WILL
IMPACT COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA, EL SALVADOR, AND HONDURAS BY EARLY TUESDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 11.5N 87.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 11.9N 87.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 12.2N 88.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 12.4N 88.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 12.7N 89.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 13.1N 89.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 14.0N 90.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 16.1N 92.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BUCCI
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