291
WTPZ42 KNHC 082034
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022026
300 PM CST MON JUN 08 2026
ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN WARMING, LIKELY DUE TO A
DIURNAL FLUCTUATION, BORIS IS EXHIBITING SOME LIMITED CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES. OVERALL, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME
SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE EARLIER TODAY. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 40 KT BASED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA. BANDS OF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SPREADING ACROSS THE
COASTLINE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
CIRCULATION.
BASED ON AN ASCAT OVERPASS, THE CENTER OF BORIS WAS REPOSITIONED AT
18Z TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED TRACK. THE MOTION
APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD, OR 050/3 KT. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THE SIMPLE AND CORRECTED
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS BUT LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION.
SINCE THE INNER CORE OF BORIS IS NOT THAT WELL DEFINED AND THE STORM
IS BEING INFLUENCED BY SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER ITS
CENTER CROSSES THE COAST, BORIS SHOULD WEAKEN AND SOON DISSIPATE
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.
THE THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD
OF CONCERN WITH THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM BORIS WILL IMPACT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 15.5N 99.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 16.4N 99.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 17.1N 100.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 10/0600Z 17.7N 101.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PASCH
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