598
WTPZ43 KNHC 082035
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032026
300 PM CST MON JUN 08 2026
CRISTINA IS A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP
CONVECTION HAD BEEN PARTIALLY OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER UNTIL A
COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. NOW THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE CONCENTRATED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE EXPOSED CIRCULATION. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN 32 TO 40 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 40 KT IN DEFERENCE TO THE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA.
THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT 5 KT, NEARING THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED NORTH OF
CRISTINA AND SHOULD TURN THE STORM NORTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY,
PARALLEL THE COAST UNTIL LANDFALL. HOWEVER, THIS SCENARIO SEEMS
TIED TO THE DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE, AND IS AT ODDS WITH THE MONSOONAL
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BRINGING THE CENTER CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE,
CLOSEST TO THE LATEST ECMWF AND JUST WEST OF GDMI. THIS TRACK
FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OVER LAND SOONER THAN THE PREVIOUS
PREDICTION, HOWEVER ANY ADJUSTMENTS FURTHER NORTHWARD COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE THE TIMING OF LANDFALL.
COMPETING FACTORS MAKE THE INTENSITY FORECAST SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
STRONG DEEP VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PLAGUE CRISTINA FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER, HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29-30 DEGREES C) AND A MOIST MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DO SUPPORT
FURTHER STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SOME GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL THE EFFECTS OF
LAND ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WILL
IMPACT COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA, EL SALVADOR, AND HONDURAS AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 12.1N 87.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 12.4N 87.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 12.6N 88.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 12.9N 88.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 13.3N 89.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 13.9N 90.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...ON THE COAST
72H 11/1800Z 14.9N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BUCCI
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