584
WTPZ43 KNHC 090234
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032026
900 PM CST MON JUN 08 2026
ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF
CRISTINA, OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WAS EVIDENT
EARLIER, THOUGH THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO BATTLE SIGNIFICANT
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO
THE SUBJECTIVE OR OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, RANGING FROM 31-43
KT, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS HELD AT 40 KT.
AFTER MOVING NORTHWARD EARLIER TODAY, FIXES FROM GEOSTATIONARY AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT CRISTINA HAS SLOWED DOWN
SUBSTANTIALLY, AND ITS CURRENT ESTIMATED MOTION IS 360/2 KT. THE
TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO PRESENT A CONUNDRUM. CRISTINA MOVED
CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN ANTICIPATED EARLIER TODAY, LIKELY DUE TO
ITS EXPOSED CENTER MOVING ALONG WITH THE STRONG MONSOONAL LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. WITH DEEP CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE CENTER THIS EVENING, IT
HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION, AND MUCH OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
SHOWS VERY LITTLE SHORT-TERM MOTION. THEREAFTER, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS LOCATED NORTH OF CRISTINA AND MAY HELP TO IMPART A SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. HOWEVER, THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, WITH THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND AND GFS SHOWING A SOUTHWARD
COMPONENT OF MOTION, WHILE THE ECMWF AND HAFS-A/B SHOW NORTHWARD
SOLUTIONS THAT QUICKLY MOVE CRISTINA INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THESE LATTER SOLUTIONS, SHOWING
A VERY SLOW MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, BUT EVENTUALLY BRINGING
CRISTINA INLAND ALONG THE COASTLINE OF EL SALVADOR BETWEEN 36-48
HOURS. GIVEN THE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
TRACK FORECAST.
CRISTINA IS NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED DUE TO THE STORM DEALING WITH
35-40 KT OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS DIAGNOSED BY SHIPS
GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, PROXIMITY TO LAND, ESPECIALLY THE HIGH
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COULD ALSO KEEP CRISTINA'S INTENSITY
IN CHECK. THE MAJORITY OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION, AND THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST NOW ONLY HAS
CRISTINA MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY WHILE IT REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE.
IF CRISTINA IS ABLE TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST OVER WARM
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT, SOME
INTENSIFICATION REMAINS POSSIBLE, AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS MODEL.
ASSUMING CRISTINA MOVES INLAND BEYOND 48 HOURS, RAPID WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED WITH DISSIPATION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TOWARD THE LATTER
PART OF THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WILL
IMPACT COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA, EL SALVADOR, AND HONDURAS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0300Z 12.5N 87.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 12.5N 87.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 12.7N 87.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 13.0N 88.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 13.7N 89.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/1200Z 14.6N 90.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PAPIN
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