649
WTPZ42 KNHC 090242
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022026
900 PM CST MON JUN 08 2026
BORIS IS MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO THIS EVENING
AFTER CONTINUING ON A NORTHEASTERLY MOTION TODAY, AND IS FINALLY
MAKING A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTH. THE STORM IS BEING IMPACTED BY
SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY WIND SHEAR, AND THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE HAS WANED, AS EXHIBITED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND LACK OF
ORGANIZED BANDING FEATURES. HOWEVER, OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35-43 KT, SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 40 KT.
THE CENTER OF BORIS WAS REPOSITIONED AT 00Z TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED TRACK, BASED ON GEOSTATIONARY AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED UP
UNTIL LANDFALL. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF AMERICA. ONCE INLAND, RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND BORIS
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO BY
MIDWEEK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LIES BETWEEN THE SIMPLE AND
CORRECTED DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS BUT LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER
SOLUTION.
THE THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD
OF CONCERN WITH THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM, WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM BORIS WILL IMPACT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THIS RAINFALL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG THE
COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY TUESDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0300Z 16.0N 98.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 16.6N 98.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 10/0000Z 17.5N 99.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER ADAMS/PAPIN
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