322
WTPZ42 KNHC 090842
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022026
300 AM CST TUE JUN 09 2026
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BORIS BEGAN FALLING APART ABOUT
12 HOURS AGO, AND NOW THERE IS BARELY ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION
REMAINING. IT IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS, AND THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES,
SCATTEROMETER DATA, OR NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. BASED ON THE
GOES PROXY VIS IMAGERY, IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE CENTER OF BORIS
HAS MOVED INLAND ALONG THE BORDER OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN BROUGHT DOWN TO 35 KT WHICH COULD BE
GENEROUS, AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
THE CURRENT MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 KT. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED SHORTLY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA, AND LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN
MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION OCCURRING OVER LAND VERY
SOON. THE NHC FORECAST INDICATES WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY
MIDDAY TODAY WITH DISSIPATION BY HOUR 24, ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT BORIS COULD DISSIPATE SOONER.
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD OF
CONCERN WITH THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM, WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN THROUGH THIS
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM BORIS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL SUBSIDE BY LATER TODAY. SOME RISK
OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUES THIS MORNING,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST
WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0900Z 16.4N 98.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 17.1N 99.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HAGEN
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