321
WTPZ43 KNHC 090842
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032026
300 AM CST TUE JUN 09 2026
STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS EXPOSED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CRISTINA
IN OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVE-IR SATELLITE IMAGES. THE REMAINING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION,
WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM AROUND 0230 UTC INDICATED THAT
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WERE STILL OCCURRING. WHILE THERE WERE
SEVERAL 35-KT WIND VECTORS FROM THOSE ASCAT PASSES, THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION OF THE STORM HAS NOTABLY DETERIORATED SINCE THAT TIME.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY,
CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE (30-37 KT) AND TAFB
SUBJECTIVE (35 KT) SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
THE LONG-TERM MOTION OF CRISTINA IS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD (020/3 KT).
HOWEVER, THE EXPOSED CENTER HAS WOBBLED AROUND OVERNIGHT AND NOW
LIES VERY NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. THERE IS MORE
SPREAD IN THE NEAR-TERM TRACK GUIDANCE THAN USUAL, WITH MODELS
STRUGGLING TO INITIALIZE THE CENTER OF CRISTINA IN THE PROPER
LOCATION. THE FUTURE TRACK IS UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON WHETHER THE
CIRCULATION REMAINS INTACT WHILE IT MEANDERS NEAR THE COAST OF
NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA AND SOUTHERN HONDURAS TODAY. IF THE CENTER
REMAINS OFFSHORE, THEN MOST MODELS EVENTUALLY AGREE ON A SLOW
WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THAT TAKES CRISTINA TOWARD EL
SALVADOR ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST LIES TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION AND THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN THE
STORM'S CURRENT LOCATION, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW.
CONTINUED NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE STORM'S PROXIMITY TO
LAND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO,
EVEN IF THE CENTER IS ABLE TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE BULK OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS SCENARIO, AND THE UPDATED NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS CRISTINA BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND DISSIPATING ON THURSDAY. THIS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL AND SIMPLE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
AIDS. ALTERNATIVELY, THE CIRCULATION OF CRISTINA COULD OPEN UP AND
DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN FORECAST IF IT MOVES INLAND SOONER THAN
EXPECTED. THE GFS DEVIATES MUCH FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE REST
OF THE GUIDANCE, AND THE RESULTING INTENSIFICATION IT SHOWS IS
DEEMED AN UNLIKELY SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WILL
IMPACT COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS, ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA, EL SALVADOR, AND HONDURAS
TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0900Z 12.7N 87.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 12.9N 87.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 13.2N 88.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 13.5N 88.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/0600Z 14.0N 89.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER REINHART
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