589
WTPZ43 KNHC 091446
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032026
900 AM CST TUE JUN 09 2026
CRISTINA CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY STRONG NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS DISORGANIZED WITH
LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES. THE CENTER OF
THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN
AREA OF CONVECTION. GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM, THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS.
THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING ERRATICALLY NEAR THE NORTHWEST
COAST OF NICARAGUA, AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NEARLY
STATIONARY. THE FUTURE TRACK IS UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON WHETHER THE
CIRCULATION REMAINS INTACT WHILE IT MEANDERS NEAR THE COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. IF THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE, A SLOW
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY BEGINNING WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO, TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. THERE
IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE MODELS, SO THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST.
SINCE CRISTINA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, AND NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE AREA, A
WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN IN A DAY OR SO. THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
HOWEVER IF CRISTINA WERE TO MOVE INLAND SOONER THAN EXPECTED, IT
WILL MEET ITS DEMISE EARLIER THAN INDICATED HERE. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS
MODEL GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WILL
IMPACT COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS, ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA, EL SALVADOR, AND HONDURAS
TODAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 12.5N 87.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 12.6N 87.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 12.9N 88.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 13.2N 89.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 13.7N 89.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PASCH
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