347
WTPZ43 KNHC 100234
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032026
900 PM CST TUE JUN 09 2026
UNLIKE 24 HOURS AGO, CRISTINA'S LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO
FIND THIS EVENING. WHILE CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO PULSE NEAR AND
TO THE SOUTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER, IT ONLY HAS MODEST
ORGANIZATION. AN AFTERNOON OSCAT PASS SUGGESTED THE CENTER WAS
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER TODAY, AND RADAR IMAGES OUT OF
NICARAGUA DO SHOW SOME BROAD MID-LEVEL TURNING IN THE SAME VICINITY.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM EARLIER
TODAY, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
PIECING TOGETHER THE DATA, IT APPEARS CRISTINA IS STARTING TO CRAWL
ALONG A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST, WITH AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF
260/2 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT, SHOWING A
VERY SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IN THE SHORT-TERM. THEN, AS A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA, THE TRACK
GUIDANCE RESPONDS BY SHOWING A SHARPER TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IN
24-36 H, BRINGING CRISTINA INLAND NEAR EL SALVADOR DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE STORM SHOULD THEN QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. GIVEN THE FARTHER SOUTHWARD INITIAL
POSITION, THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST WAS NUDGED A BIT SOUTHWARD
EARLY ON, BUT CONVERGES FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK
AFTER 24 H.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER CRISTINA HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST DAY,
NOW UNDER 20 KT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER VERY
WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH AMPLE DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE.
HOWEVER, IT IS UNCLEAR HOW INTACT CRISTINA'S CIRCULATION IS AFTER
BRUSHING UP CLOSE TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NICARAGUA LAST NIGHT.
MOREOVER, MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR THESE REASONS, THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO ONLY SHOW MODEST INTENSIFICATION
IN 24 H BEFORE CRISTINA'S CIRCULATION NEARS EL SALVADOR AND STARTS
TO INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA ONCE
AGAIN. AFTER THE STORM MOVES INLAND, RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED,
WITH DISSIPATION ANTICIPATED BY 60 H.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WILL
IMPACT COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS, ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA, EL SALVADOR, AND
HONDURAS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0300Z 12.4N 88.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 12.4N 88.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 12.8N 88.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 13.7N 89.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/0000Z 15.0N 89.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PAPIN/ADAMS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page