332
WTPZ43 KNHC 100848
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032026
300 AM CST WED JUN 10 2026
RECENT RADAR IMAGES FROM NICARAGUA SHOW A SMALL CURVED BAND TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF CRISTINA, WITH A LARGER AREA OF NEWER
CONVECTION THAT EXTENDS FARTHER TO THE WEST OFFSHORE OF EL SALVADOR
AND GUATEMALA. EARLIER PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGES WERE INCONCLUSIVE IN
ASSESSING THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE STORM, BUT RECENT OSCAT
WINDS INDICATE THE CENTER IS STILL CLOSED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON A
BLEND OF THE OSCAT DATA WITH THE LATEST UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE (28-39
KT) AND TAFB SUBJECTIVE (35 KT) SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT.
CRISTINA IS STILL MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD (260/3 KT). COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT, THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE
STORM WILL TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE APPROACHING CENTRAL AMERICA. THE UPDATED
NHC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE HCCA AND TVCE CONSENSUS AIDS AND
SHOWS CRISTINA REACHING THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR BY EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS TRACK PREDICTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
CRISTINA REMAINS OVER VERY WARM SSTS, AND THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR HAS
DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, THE STORM IS STILL FAIRLY CLOSE
TO LAND, AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
WILL OCCUR BEFORE CRISTINA REACHES THE COAST. THEREFORE, THE NHC
FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING BEFORE CRISTINA
MOVES INLAND ON THURSDAY MORNING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. THIS
PREDICTION LIES ON THE HIGHER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. ONCE INLAND, THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EL SALVADOR AND
GUATEMALA WILL INDUCE RAPID WEAKENING, AND CRISTINA SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WILL
IMPACT COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS, ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF EL SALVADOR, HONDURAS, AND
NICARAGUA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0900Z 12.4N 88.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 12.7N 88.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 13.4N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 14.5N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER REINHART
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