557
WTPZ43 KNHC 101435
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032026
900 AM CST WED JUN 10 2026
CRISTINA IS RATHER DISORGANIZED AT THE MOMENT. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED PREVIOUSLY HAS BECOME HARD TO LOCATE EVEN
WITH THE AID OF A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS. THE MICROWAVE DATA
SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A SECOND VORTICITY CENTER IS FORMING
TO THE SOUTHWEST CLOSE TO A CONVECTIVE BAND. HOWEVER, 1-MIN GOES
DATA SUGGESTS THIS CENTER IS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FEATURE AND NOT A
SURFACE CENTER. THE ADVISORY POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON
CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 35 KT BASED ON THE VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. UPCOMING SAR AND SCATTEROMETER PASSES WILL HOPEFULLY
BRING SOME CLARITY AS TO THE CENTER LOCATION AND STRUCTURE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 270/3. HOWEVER, THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CRISTINA SHOULD TURN
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 H AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE
STORM TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN AROUND 24 H AND INLAND
THEREAFTER. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL POSITION, AND ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY DEPENDING ON WHAT THE
UPCOMING SATELLITE WIND DATA SHOWS.
CRISTINA IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR AND VERY WARM
WATER THAT SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING AS SUGGESTED BY THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS. HOWEVER, PROXIMITY TO LAND AND THE
CURRENT DISORGANIZATION ARE NEGATIVE FACTORS, AND THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL SHOW A LITTLE STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
12 H. AFTER THAT, THE EXPECTED PATH NEAR AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
SHOULD LEAD TO THE CYCLONE'S DEMISE BY 48 H.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WILL
IMPACT COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS, ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 12.5N 88.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 12.9N 89.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 13.8N 89.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/0000Z 15.2N 90.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
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