875
WTPZ43 KNHC 102035
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032026
300 PM CST WED JUN 10 2026
CRISTINA HAS CONTINUED TO LOSE ORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE CENTER HAS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A RAGGED CONVECTIVE BAND
PRESENT NEAR THE CENTER. SCATTEROMETER AND SYNTHETIC APERTURE
RADAR DATA RECEIVED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS
NEAR 30 KT, AND BASED ON THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 30 KT. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CIMMS DMINT
AND DPRINT OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
A COMBINATION OF THE SATELLITE WIND DATA AND THE LATEST
GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CRISTINA HAS STARTED ITS
NORTHWESTWARD TURN, WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 305/4 KT. A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD
HELP CONTINUE THIS MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO, WITH THE CENTER
OF CRISTINA MOVING INLAND OVER EL SALVADOR SOMETIME TONIGHT AND
INTO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA ON THURSDAY. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS
MODELS.
CRISTINA IS NOT TAKING ADVANTAGE OF AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS
CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING, AND THIS MIGHT BE DUE TO DISRUPTION OF
THE CIRCULATION CAUSED BY THE PROXIMITY TO CENTRAL AMERICA. THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL, AND THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS. FIRST, THE SYSTEM COULD CONTINUE TO DECAY AS
IT APPROACHES THE COAST, AND THE CIRCULATION COULD WEAKEN TO A
TROUGH BEFORE LANDFALL. SECOND, THE CONVECTION COULD RE-ORGANIZE
NEAR THE CENTER LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SLIGHT STRENGTHENING THAT
WOULD BRING THE CYCLONE BACK TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE SECOND SCENARIO, A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW
IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA WILL
IMPACT COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS, ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/2100Z 12.6N 88.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 13.2N 89.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 14.6N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
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