951
AXPZ20 KNHC 102039
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUN 10 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA IS CENTERED
NEAR 12.6N 88.9W AT 10/2100 UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 4 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY
NEAR 12 FT, OR 4.0 M. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 86W AND 96W. CRISTINA HAS STARTED
ITS NORTHWESTWARD TURN. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR SO, WITH THE CENTER OF CRISTINA MOVING INLAND OVER EL SALVADOR
SOMETIME TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA ON THURSDAY. HEAVY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA WILL IMPACT
COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
CRISTINA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N98W TO 07N110W TO 10N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
04N TO 08N BETWEEN 96W AND 115W, AND FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN
125W AND 136W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS AND AT
THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE, LOCALLY TO 8 FT,
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO, AND 3 FT OR LESS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE, LOCALLY FRESH, SW
TO S WINDS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GENTLE TO
LOCALLY MODERATE NW TO W WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS BETWEEN
CABO CORRIENTES AND TEHUNATEPEC THROUGH FRI, THEN WEAKEN INTO THE
WEEKEND. ROUGH SEAS IN MIXED SWELLS OFF BAJA NORTE WILL LINGER
THROUGH THU.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION CRISTINA.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS SURROUND CRISTINA FROM
ROUGHLY N OF 11N AND E OF 90W. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE 7-11 FT N OF 10N,
AND MAINLY 6-7 FT S OF 10N.
FOR THE FORECAST, RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
CRISTINA IS NEAR 12.6N 88.9W AT 2 PM PDT, AND IS MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT,
AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. CRISTINA WILL MOVE
TO 13.2N 89.5W THU MORNING, INLAND TO 14.6N 90.0W THU AFTERNOON,
AND DISSIPATE FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS THU
INTO THE WEEKEND, EXCEPT LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS IN NEW SOUTHERLY
SWELL NEAR THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THU AND THU NIGHT. WINDS MAY
PULSE TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH IN DIURNAL OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF
125W. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6-7 FT, ARE FOUND S OF 06N AND E OF
120W. NORTHERLY SWELL IS BRINGING SEAS OF 6-9 FT TO THE WATERS N
OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS,
AND SEAS OF 5-7 FT, PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN, WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THU. WINDS WILL THEN BE MODERATE OR
WEAKER ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS. NORTHERLY SWELLS MIXED
WITH THE LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK BEFORE DECAYING. OTHERWISE, MODERATE SEAS WILL DOMINATE THE
OPEN WATERS.
AL
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