631
WTPZ43 KNHC 110233
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032026
900 PM CST WED JUN 10 2026
CRISTINA IS BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE RIGHT NOW. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE, AND MUCH OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION THAT WAS SCATTERED AROUND EARLIER HAS SINCE DISSIPATED,
LEAVING A LARGE REGION OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH DEEPER
CONVECTION PRIMARILY ONSHORE. AN EARLIER OSCAT PASS AT 1819 UTC
SUGGESTED A CIRCULATION WAS STILL INTACT, AND IT IS PREFERABLE TO
WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY, EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT,
TO DETERMINE IF CRISTINA STILL HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. FOR NOW,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT USING THE LATEST UW-CIMSS
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
THE DEPRESSION'S ESTIMATED MOTION IS NORTHWESTWARD AT 4 KT, AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE CYCLONE
REMAINS STEERED BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING CRISTINA TO THE COAST OF EL
SALVADOR LATER TONIGHT, IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST TRACK
GUIDANCE. GIVEN HOW POORLY DEFINED CRISTINA CURRENTLY APPEARS, IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT REINTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR. IT ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE
THE SYSTEM COULD OPEN INTO A TROUGH AT ANY TIME BEFORE LANDFALL.
REGARDLESS, THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA ON THURSDAY. WHILE A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR, THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WILL LIKELY BE CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA WILL
IMPACT COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
2. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS, ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR TONIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0300Z 13.1N 89.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 14.1N 89.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PAPIN
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