631
AXPZ20 KNHC 110237
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUN 11 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA IS CENTERED NEAR 13.1N 89.3W AT
11/0300 UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 10 FT OR 3.0 M.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM NEAR
10N TO 16N BETWEEN 86W AND 96W, WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED, DEEP
AND HEAVY CONVECTION OVER LAND INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO, THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, GUATEMALA, EL SALVADOR, HONDURAS
AND NICARAGUA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK, THE CENTER OF CRISTINA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN EL
SALVADOR TONIGHT, THEN MOVE INLAND OVER EL SALVADOR AND INTO
SOUTHERN GUATEMALA BY THU. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. AFTER LANDFALL, CRISTINA IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER GUATEMALA ON THURSDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA WILL IMPACT COASTAL
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THU. THIS RAINFALL MAY
PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
CRISTINA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA TO ACROSS
SOUTHERN NICARAGUA TO NEAR TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA, THEN
OFFSHORE FROM NEAR 13N90W TO 08N110W TO 09.5N138W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 06N
BETWEEN 86W AND 92W, FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 95W AND 103W, FROM
04N TO 07N BETWEEN 103W AND 116W, AND FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN
121W AND 129W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 05N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 129W AND 137W. ADDITIONAL NEARBY
CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH CRISTINA.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
BROAD AND ELONGATED TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N129W, DISRUPTING AND BACKING OFF
THE RIDGE TO THE W. UNDER THIS PRESSURE PATTERN WINDS ARE MAINLY
MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS, INCLUDING IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXCEPT LOCAL MODERATE TO FRESH WESTERLY WINDS
NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, AND JUST N OF THERE
THROUGH THE GAPS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE, LOCALLY TO 8 FT, OVER
THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO, AND 3 FT OR LESS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE 6-7 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS, DOMINATED
BY S-SW SWELL, EXCEPT 7-9 FT WELL OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
MIXED WITH NW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. GENTLE TO MODERATE, LOCALLY FRESH, SW
TO S WINDS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NEAR
THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE NW TO
W WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND
TEHUNATEPEC THROUGH FRI, THEN WEAKEN INTO THE WEEKEND. ROUGH SEAS
IN MIXED SWELLS OFF BAJA NORTE WILL LINGER THROUGH THU.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION CRISTINA.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS SURROUND CRISTINA FROM
ROUGHLY N OF 11N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS, EXCEPT LOCALLY FRESH
SSW OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. SEAS ARE 7-10 FT N OF 11N AND E OF
90W, AND MAINLY 5-7 FT IN SW SWELL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, CRISTINA WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL AND MOVE
TO 14.1N 89.7W THU MORNING, AND DISSIPATE THU EVENING. OTHERWISE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS THU INTO THE WEEKEND, EXCEPT LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS IN NEW SOUTHERLY SWELL NEAR THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THU AND
THU NIGHT. WINDS MAY PULSE TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH IN
DIURNAL OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND NEAR
THE GULF OF GUAYAQUIL DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
BROAD AND ELONGATED TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO 10N129W, DISRUPTING AND BACKING OFF
THE RIDGE TO THE W. UNDER THIS PRESSURE PATTERN WINDS ARE N-NE AT
MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS N OF 10N AND W OF THE TROUGHING. SEAS
ARE 6-8 FT IN MAINLY LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS ACROSS THESE
WATERS, EXCEPT HIGHER AT 7-10 FT MIXED WITH NORTHERLY SWELL N OF
27N BETWEEN 119W AND 131W. WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND E OF THE ELONGATED TROUGHING TO THE N ARE GENTLE WITH
6-7 FT SEAS DOMINATED BY THE SOUTHERLY SWELL. WINDS ARE MAINLY
MODERATE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH 6-8 FT SEAS, EXCEPT
SLIGHTLY LOWER E OF 95W. SOME ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE
PRESENT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN W OF THE
ELONGATED TROUGHING, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THU. WINDS WILL THEN BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN
WATERS, EXCEPT AT LEAST MODERATE TO FRESH NEAR TRANSIENT EMBEDDED
LOW PRESSURE AREAS ALONG WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
NORTHERLY SWELLS MIXED WITH THE LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS
WITH SEAS OF 7-9 FT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL WATERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BEFORE DECAYING. OTHERWISE,
MODERATE SEAS WILL DOMINATE THE OPEN WATERS, LOCALLY ROUGH IN THE
S-CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AS WELL AS NEAR ANY
OF THE EMBEDDED MONSOON TROUGH LOWS.
LEWITSKY
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