167
AXPZ20 KNHC 141434
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUN 14 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 85W EXTENDING FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY
CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N84W TO 06.5N93W TO
10N115W TO 06N140W. TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH, ONE IS A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 09.5N126W,
AND THE OTHER A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 08N133W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 05N BETWEEN 80W
AND 90W, AND FROM 03N TO 11N BETWEEN 118W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
WEAK 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA NEAR
29N121W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS, AND
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO, AND
3 FT OR LESS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODERATE WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH IN DIURNAL OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK, REACHING STRONG SPEEDS EARLY TODAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE AREA ENHANCES GAP FLOW.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. GENTLE TO
MODERATE S TO SW WINDS ARE FOUND BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
AND COLOMBIA. GENTLE WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE
5-6 FT RANGE BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND COLOMBIA, AND 4-6
FT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODERATE WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH IN DIURNAL OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY
REACHING STRONG SPEEDS EARLY TODAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE AREA ENHANCES GAP FLOW.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS,
LOCALLY MODERATE, N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH, ONE IS A 1009 MB
LOW NEAR 09.5N126W, AND THE OTHER A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 08N133W.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF
123W, REACHING STRONG SPEEDS S OF TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. ROUGH SEAS TO 10 FT ARE OVER THE WATERS S OF THE TWO
LOWS, WITH MAINLY MODERATE SEAS FOUND ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 08N133W IS BEING
CLOSELY MONITORED AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD SUPPORT SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE
SYSTEM MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
BY MIDWEEK, DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS.
AL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page