244
AXPZ20 KNHC 141930
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUN 14 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1930 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 86W EXTENDING FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN SOUTHWARD, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 08N
BETWEEN 83W AND 90W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N84W TO 06.5N93W TO 10N115W
TO 06N140W. A 1007 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH
NEAR 08N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 11N BETWEEN 120W AND 136W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WEST OF THE AREA NEAR
27N121W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS SUPPORTING
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS, AND OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
DISCUSSION WATERS IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE
WATERS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. SEAS ARE IN THE
4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO, AND 3 FT OR LESS
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODERATE WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH IN DIURNAL OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK, REACHING STRONG SPEEDS EARLY TODAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE AREA ENHANCES GAP FLOW.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND
COLOMBIA. GENTLE WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6
FT RANGE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MODERATE WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH IN DIURNAL OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 08N132W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS,
AND SEAS OF 8-10 FT, ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW. ELSEWHERE,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, LOCALLY MODERATE, AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 08N133W IS BEING
CLOSELY MONITORED AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD SUPPORT SOME
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. BY MIDWEEK, DRY
AIR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, WILL PREVAIL.
AL
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