019
AXPZ20 KNHC 151548
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUN 15 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 92.5W EXTENDING FROM THE
BORDER OF GUATEMALA WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO 01N JUST NW OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN
91W AND 96W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA TO ACROSS
THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA WITH COSTA RICA TO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
NEAR 11N86W TO 06N96W TO 12N108W TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR 10N125W
1011 MB TO LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP93, NEAR 08.5N132W 1007 MB TO
BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 09N BETWEEN 77W AND 85W, FROM 09.5N TO 12N
BETWEEN 97W AND 100W, FROM 04N TO 13N BETWEEN 102W AND 120W, FROM
07N TO 12N BETWEEN 121W AND 125W, FROM 01N TO 06.5N BETWEEN 129W
AND 139.5W, AND FROM 06.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 130W AND 135W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW ARIZONA TO ALONG THE COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND SURFACE RIDGING TO THE WEST IS SUPPORTING
GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA OFFSHORES,
AND LOCALLY FRESH SW TO NW WINDS NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS. IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM THE SSW AND
SEAS REMAIN SLIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER
DISCUSSION WATERS IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH
MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, PULSING TO LOCALLY FRESH SPEEDS AT
NIGHT. GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NEAR THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR,
REACHING LOCALLY FRESH SPEEDS MIDWEEK. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND
TEHUNATEPEC.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE ONGOING IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SE TO S WINDS ARE FOUND BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS AND ECUADOR WITH MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. A LARGE
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA TO
ACROSS PANAMA AND WESTERN COLOMBIA, AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST OF
COSTA RICA AS DESCRIBED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH ABOVE. WINDS AND
SEAS MAY BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MODERATE WINDS WILL
PULSE TO FRESH IN DIURNAL OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN POSSIBLY FRI NIGHT. LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE
FORECAST ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1007 MB LOW, INVEST EP93, IS CENTERED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 08.5N132W WITH NEARBY CONVECTION
DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
ARE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE LOW CENTER, LIKELY REACHING STRONG
SPEEDS IN THE AREAS OF STRONGEST CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT ARE ALSO WITHIN THAT DISTANCE FROM
THE LOW CENTER. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL, LOCALLY ROUGH NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 110W.
FOR THE FORECAST, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AROUND THE BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP93, COULD SUPPORT SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. THEREAFTER,
INCREASING DRY MID- LEVEL AIR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS, AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL, EXCEPT SEAS BUILDING TO ROUGH SOUTH OF AND
NEAR THE EQUATOR AND EAST OF 120W IN NEW SOUTHERLY SWELLS
MIDWEEK, LINGERING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, YET
ANOTHER SET OF SOUTHERLY SWELL MAY BUILD SEAS TO ROUGH OVER THE
SAME AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LEWITSKY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page