495
AXPZ20 KNHC 151942
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUN 15 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1900 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 94.5W EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SOUTHWARD TO 01N JUST WNW OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 0N TO 10N BETWEEN 88W AND 100W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA TO ACROSS
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA, REACHING FROM 09.5N84W TO 05.5N90W TO
11N118W TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR 10N126W 1013 MB TO LOW PRESSURE,
INVEST EP93, NEAR 09N132W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 11N BETWEEN 77W
AND 86W, FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 105W AND 117W, FROM 07N TO 11N
BETWEEN 121W AND 124W, FROM 02N TO 13N BETWEEN 130W AND 136W, AND
FROM 00N TO 06N BETWEEN 136W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW ARIZONA TO ALONG THE COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND SURFACE RIDGING TO THE WEST IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA
OFFSHORES. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS ARE GENTLE TO
MODERATE FROM THE SSW AND SEAS REMAIN SLIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER DISCUSSION WATERS IS SUPPORTING
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, PULSING TO LOCALLY FRESH SPEEDS AT
NIGHT. GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NEAR THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR,
REACHING LOCALLY FRESH SPEEDS MIDWEEK. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND
TEHUNATEPEC.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE ONGOING IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SE TO S WINDS ARE FOUND BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS AND ECUADOR WITH MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. A LARGE
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA TO
ACROSS PANAMA AND WESTERN COLOMBIA, AS WELL AS NEAR THE COAST OF
COSTA RICA AS DESCRIBED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH ABOVE. WINDS AND
SEAS MAY BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. MODERATE WINDS WILL
PULSE TO FRESH IN DIURNAL OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN POSSIBLY FRI NIGHT AND SAT
NIGHT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN SW
SWELL ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1007 MB LOW, INVEST EP93, IS CENTERED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 09N132W WITH NEARBY CONVECTION
DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
ARE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE LOW CENTER, LIKELY REACHING STRONG
SPEEDS IN THE AREAS OF STRONGEST CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ROUGH SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT ARE ALSO WITHIN THAT
DISTANCE FROM THE LOW CENTER. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL, LOCALLY ROUGH NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH
W OF 110W.
FOR THE FORECAST, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AROUND THE BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP93, COULD SUPPORT SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. THEREAFTER,
INCREASING DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS, AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL, EXCEPT SEAS BUILDING TO ROUGH SOUTH OF AND
NEAR THE EQUATOR AND EAST OF 120W IN NEW SOUTHERLY SWELLS
MIDWEEK, LINGERING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, YET
ANOTHER SET OF SOUTHERLY SWELL MAY BUILD SEAS TO ROUGH OVER THE
SAME AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LEWITSKY
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