150
AXPZ20 KNHC 160400
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUN 16 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0350 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 96.5W EXTENDING FROM 01N TO
15N, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 11W BETWEEN 90W AND 104W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA TO ACROSS
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA, REACHING FROM 10N86W TO 10N116W TO LOW
PRESSURE, INVEST EP93, NEAR 10N133W 1008 MB TO BEYOND 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N
TO 14N E OF 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO
12N BETWEEN 107W AND 118W, AND FROM 04N TO 13N BETWEEN 124W AND
137W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND SURFACE RIDGING TO THE WEST IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA OFFSHORES ALONG
WITH MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS ARE
GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM THE SSW AND SEAS REMAIN SLIGHT. A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER DISCUSSION WATERS IS
SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT IN SW
SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, PULSING TO LOCALLY FRESH SPEEDS AT
NIGHT. GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NEAR THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR,
REACHING LOCALLY FRESH SPEEDS MIDWEEK. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND
TEHUNATEPEC.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE WINDS ARE ONGOING IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH SE TO S WINDS ARE FOUND BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND
ECUADOR WITH MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
FOUND ELSEWHERE WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. OTHERWISE,
SCATTERED HESAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE COSTA RICA
OFFSHORES AS DESCRIBED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH ABOVE. WINDS AND
SEAS MAY BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR THIS AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. MODERATE WINDS WILL
PULSE TO FRESH IN DIURNAL OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN AGAIN POSSIBLY FRI NIGHT AND SAT
NIGHT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN SW
SWELL ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1008 MB LOW, INVEST EP93, IS CENTERED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 09N132W WITH NEARBY CONVECTION
DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
ARE WITHIN 240 NM NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM SE QUADRANT OF
THE LOW CENTER. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT ARE ALSO
WITHIN THAT DISTANCE FROM THE LOW CENTER. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL, LOCALLY ROUGH NEAR THE
MONSOON TROUGH E OF 106W.
FOR THE FORECAST, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AROUND THE BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP93, COULD SUPPORT SOME SLIGHT
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWARD AND
THEN NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. THEREAFTER, INCREASINGLY DRY
MID-LEVEL AIR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL, EXCEPT
SEAS BUILDING TO ROUGH SOUTH OF AND NEAR THE EQUATOR AND EAST OF
120W IN NEW SOUTHERLY SWELLS MIDWEEK, LINGERING INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, YET ANOTHER SET OF SOUTHERLY SWELL MAY
BUILD SEAS TO ROUGH OVER THE SAME AREA DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
RAMOS
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