254
AXPZ20 KNHC 160934
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUN 16 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0920 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 98W EXTENDING FROM 02N TO
13N, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 13W BETWEEN 95W AND 110W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA TO ACROSS
COSTA RICA, REACHING FROM 10N86W TO 08N116W TO LOW PRESSURE,
INVEST EP93, NEAR 10N133W 1008 MB TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 14N E OF
94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN
105W AND 111W, AND FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 118W AND 136W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND SURFACE RIDGING TO THE WEST IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA OFFSHORES ALONG
WITH MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS ARE
GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM THE SSW AND SEAS REMAIN SLIGHT. A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER DISCUSSION WATERS IS
SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT IN SW
SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, PULSING TO LOCALLY FRESH SPEEDS AT
NIGHT. GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NEAR THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR,
REACHING TO LOCALLY FRESH SPEEDS ON WED. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND
TEHUNATEPEC.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ARE ONGOING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ALONG
WITH MODERATE SEAS TO 5 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS ARE
FOUND BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND ECUADOR WITH MODERATE
SEAS TO 6 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE WITH
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE OFFSDHORE WATERS FROM COSTA RICA TO
GUATEMALA AS DESCRIBED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE.
WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR THESE AREAS OF DEEP
CONVECTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. MODERATE WINDS WILL
PULSE TO FRESH IN DIURNAL OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1008 MB LOW, INVEST EP93, IS CENTERED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 10N133W WITH NEARBY CONVECTION
DESCRIBED ABOVE WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS ARE WITHIN 240 NM NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM SE
QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE
ALSO WITHIN THAT DISTANCE FROM THE LOW CENTER WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS BEING IN THE NW QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL, LOCALLY ROUGH NEAR THE MONSOON
TROUGH E OF 107W.
FOR THE FORECAST, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AROUND THE BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP93, COULD SUPPORT SOME SLIGHT
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5
TO 10 KT. THEREAFTER, INCREASINGLY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IS EXPECTED
TO LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL, EXCEPT SEAS BUILDING TO
ROUGH SOUTH OF AND NEAR THE EQUATOR AND EAST OF 120W IN NEW
SOUTHERLY SWELLS WED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD,
YET ANOTHER SET OF SOUTHERLY SWELL MAY BUILD SEAS TO ROUGH OVER
THE SAME AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
RAMOS
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