226
AXPZ20 KNHC 161502
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUN 16 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1400 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 99.5W EXTENDING FROM 02N TO
16.5N JUST OFFSHORE SW MEXICO, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT.
NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO
12N BETWEEN 100W AND 107W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08.5N
TO 14N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 80W EXTENDING FROM 03N
NORTHWARD TO ACROSS PANAMA AND INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA TO ACROSS
COSTA RICA, REACHING FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT 11N86W TO
12N93W TO 09N100W TO 10N111W TO 08.5N119W TO LOW PRESSURE, INVEST
EP93, NEAR 10.5N134.5W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 77W
AND 93W, AND FROM 08.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 135W AND 137W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04.5N TO 07N BETWEEN 114W AND 116W,
FROM 02N TO 03.5N BETWEEN 118.5W AND 120.5W, AND FROM 02N TO
06.5N BETWEEN 129W AND 131.5W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TROUGH AND SURFACE RIDGING TO THE WEST IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA OFFSHORES ALONG
WITH MODERATE SEAS TO 7 FT IN S-SW SWELL. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM THE SSW AND SEAS
REMAIN SLIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER
DISCUSSION WATERS IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, EXCEPT
LOCALLY MODERATE OFF SW MEXICO, WITH MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT IN
S-SW SWELL. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM NEAR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC SOUTHWESTWARD AS DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH A PASSING
TROPICAL WAVE.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, PULSING TO LOCALLY FRESH SPEEDS AT
NIGHT. GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NEAR THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR,
REACHING TO LOCALLY FRESH SPEEDS WED INTO EARLY THU. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES
AND TEHUNATEPEC. MODERATE SEAS IN MAINLY SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, SLIGHT IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ARE ONGOING OFFSHORE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS TO 5 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S
WINDS ARE FOUND BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND ECUADOR WITH
MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE
WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM PANAMA
NORTHWESTWARD AS DESCRIBED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION
ABOVE. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR THESE AREAS OF
DEEP CONVECTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. MODERATE WINDS WILL
PULSE TO FRESH IN DIURNAL OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1008 MB LOW, INVEST EP93, IS CENTERED WELL EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NEAR 10.5N134.5W WITH NEARBY CONVECTION
DESCRIBED ABOVE WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS ARE WITHIN 240 NM NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM
SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE
ALSO WITHIN THAT DISTANCE FROM THE LOW CENTER WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS BEING IN THE NW QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL, LOCALLY ROUGH NEAR THE MONSOON
TROUGH E OF 105W.
FOR THE FORECAST, SOME SLIGHT DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, INVEST EP93, IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO,
ALTHOUGH THE POSSIBILITY OF FORMATION IS DIMINISHING AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY DRIER MID-LEVEL
AIRMASS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL, EXCEPT SEAS BUILDING TO ROUGH SOUTH OF AND NEAR THE
EQUATOR AND EAST OF 120W IN NEW SOUTHERLY SWELLS TONIGHT AND
EARLY WED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS MAY PULSE TO FRESH
IN THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS AT TIMES. LOOKING AHEAD, YET ANOTHER
SET OF SOUTHERLY SWELL MAY BUILD SEAS TO ROUGH OVER THE SAME AREA
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LEWITSKY
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