627
WTNT41 KNHC 162050
TCDAT1
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012026
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION MOSTLY OVER WATER, ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED DURING THE DAY ACCORDING TO SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA,
ALONG WITH FALLING PRESSURES. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO
TRANSITIONING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, IT IS STILL A BIT SHY OF
A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND CONSISTENT CONVECTION. THUS THE SYSTEM
REMAINS A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS 25 KT BASED ON SURFACE AND RADAR DATA.
THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. IT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFFSHORE OF SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERING FASTER
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE, MOVING VERY
NEAR THE TEXAS COAST ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE GOING BACK ONSHORE LATE
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY.
THE CENTER SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY FOR SOME
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WARM GULF WATERS
AND UPPER-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW THE SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM TOMORROW, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE, HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING IS LIKELY
THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI, AND IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS ALABAMA, GEORGIA, AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. PROLONGED RAINFALL MAY EXTEND THE FLOOD
THREAT INTO THE WEEKEND.
2. TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOUISIANA
COAST ON WEDNESDAY FROM SABINE PASS TO MORGAN CITY WHERE A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT.
3. MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/2100Z 27.3N 97.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 17/0600Z 27.9N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 17/1800Z 29.2N 94.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 31.0N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BLAKE
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