710
AXPZ20 KNHC 162114
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 16 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 82W EXTENDING FROM 03N
NORTHWARD TO ACROSS THE BORDER OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AND INTO
THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 20 KT. NEARBY
CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH BELOW.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW ANALYZED NEAR 102W EXTENDING
FROM 03N TO 17N JUST OFFSHORE SW MEXICO, BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY, MODEL DIAGNOSTICS, AND HOVMOLLER ANALYSIS
CHARTS. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH
BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 10N75W
TO ACROSS COSTA RICA, REACHING FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT
11N86W TO 12N93W TO 09N112W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N112W TO
07N118W TO 11N134W JUST TO THE E OF LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP93
NEAR 11N135.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITHIN 300 NM S-SW OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE E OF 94W,
FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 94W AND 101W, AND FROM 03N TO 14.5N
BETWEEN 94W AND 111W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N
TO 13N BETWEEN 111W AND 116W, FROM 04N TO 09.5N BETWEEN 116W AND
119W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM OF INVEST EP93 IN
THE NW SEMICIRCLE.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND SURFACE
RIDGING TO THE WEST IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW
WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA OFFSHORES ALONG WITH MODERATE
SEAS TO 7 FT IN S-SW SWELL. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS ARE
GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM THE SSW AND SEAS REMAIN SLIGHT NORTH OF
THE ENTRANCE. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER
DISCUSSION WATERS IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH
MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT IN S-SW SWELL. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS PRESENT
FROM WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, PULSING TO LOCALLY FRESH SPEEDS AT
NIGHT. GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NEAR THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR,
REACHING TO LOCALLY FRESH SPEEDS WED INTO EARLY THU. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES
AND TEHUNATEPEC. MODERATE SEAS IN MAINLY SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, SLIGHT IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ARE ONGOING OFFSHORE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS. MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. OTHERWISE,
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
FROM WESTERN COLOMBIA NORTHWESTWARD TO OFFSHORE GUATEMALA AS
DESCRIBED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. WINDS AND SEAS
MAY BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR THESE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE S TO SE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN
ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MODERATE
WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH IN DIURNAL OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE
IMMEDIATE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BEGINNING FRI NIGHT. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE FORECAST
ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1008 MB LOW, INVEST EP93, IS CENTERED WELL EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NEAR 11N135.5W WITH NEARBY CONVECTION
DESCRIBED ABOVE WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS ARE WITHIN 240 NM NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM
SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS TO AROUND 9
FT ARE ALSO WITHIN THAT DISTANCE FROM THE LOW CENTER WITH THE
HIGHEST SEAS BEING IN THE NW QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL, LOCALLY ROUGH NEAR THE
MONSOON TROUGH E OF 105W.
FOR THE FORECAST, SOME SLIGHT DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, INVEST EP93, IS STILL POSSIBLE TODAY, ALTHOUGH THE
POSSIBILITY OF FORMATION IS DIMINISHING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH AN INCREASINGLY DRIER MID-LEVEL
AIRMASS AND INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL, EXCEPT SEAS
BUILDING TO ROUGH SOUTH OF AND NEAR THE EQUATOR AND EAST OF 120W
IN NEW SOUTHERLY SWELLS TONIGHT AND EARLY WED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. WINDS MAY PULSE TO FRESH IN THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS AT
TIMES. LOOKING AHEAD, YET ANOTHER SET OF SOUTHERLY SWELL MAY
BUILD SEAS TO ROUGH OVER THE SAME AREA DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
LEWITSKY
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