324
AXPZ20 KNHC 170405
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUN 17 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0350 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 84W EXTENDING FROM 01N
NORTHWARD TO ACROSS NICARAGUA AND INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS,
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 20 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH BELOW.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW ANALYZED NEAR 105W EXTENDING
FROM 03N TO 15N. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 10N74W
TO ACROSS COSTA RICA, REACHING FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AT
11N86W TO 12N100W TO 07N115W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N115W TO
06N126W TO 09N134W JUST TO THE SE OF LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP93
NEAR 11N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 03N TO 16N E OF 100W, FROM 04N TO 14N BETWEEN 100W AND
120W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST EP93 HAS DISSIPATED.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO CABO SAN LUCAS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND SURFACE RIDGING TO THE WEST IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA
OFFSHORES ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS TO 7 FT IN S-SW SWELL. IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE AND SEAS REMAIN
SLIGHT NORTH OF THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER DISCUSSION WATERS IS SUPPORTING
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS TO 6 FT IN S-SW SWELL.
ACTIVE CONVECTION IS PRESENT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM
CHIAPAS TO OAXACA, INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS
DESCRIBED ABOVE.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, PULSING TO LOCALLY FRESH SPEEDS AT
NIGHT. GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NEAR THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR,
REACHING TO LOCALLY FRESH SPEEDS WED INTO EARLY THU. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES
AND TEHUNATEPEC. MODERATE SEAS IN MAINLY SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, SLIGHT IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ARE ONGOING OFFSHORE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS. MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. OTHERWISE,
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
FROM WESTERN COLOMBIA NORTHWESTWARD TO OFFSHORE GUATEMALA AS
DESCRIBED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. WINDS AND SEAS
MAY BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR THESE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE S TO SE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN
ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MODERATE
WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH IN DIURNAL OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE
IMMEDIATE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BEGINNING FRI NIGHT. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE FORECAST
ELSEWHERE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A 1008 MB LOW, INVEST EP93, CENTERED WELL EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NEAR 11N135W IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE WITHIN 240 NM
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM SE QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER.
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT ARE ALSO WITHIN THAT
DISTANCE FROM THE LOW CENTER WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS BEING IN THE
NW QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP93, LOCATED WELL EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, IS MOVING INTO AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH AN INCREASINGLY DRY MID-LEVEL AIRMASS AND
INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS, AND DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS
WILL PREVAIL, EXCEPT SEAS BUILDING TO ROUGH SOUTH OF AND NEAR
THE EQUATOR AND EAST OF 120W IN NEW SOUTHERLY SWELLS TONIGHT AND
EARLY WED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS MAY PULSE TO FRESH
IN THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS AT TIMES. LOOKING AHEAD, YET ANOTHER
SET OF SOUTHERLY SWELL MAY BUILD SEAS TO ROUGH OVER THE SAME AREA
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
RAMOS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page