829
AXPZ20 KNHC 171927
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUN 17 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1900 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE BASIN NEAR 78W FROM
JUST OFFSHORE WESTERN COLOMBIA NORTHWARD TO EASTERN PANAMA AND
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 20 KT. ANY NEARBY
CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH BELOW.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 91.5W EXTENDING FROM 02N
NORTHWARD NEAR THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS TO ACROSS PORTIONS OF
GUATEMALA, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 20 KT. ANY NEARBY
CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH BELOW.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED NEAR 111W EXTENDING FROM
03N TO 16N. ANY NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA TO ACROSS
THE BORDER OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO THE PACIFIC NEAR 08.8N84W
TO 14.5N93.5W NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM 14N101W TO 13N109W, THEN RESUMES WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE
FROM 12N111W TO 08N127W TO 09N139W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 09N BETWEEN 77W AND 88W, AND
FROM 01N TO 06.5N BETWEEN 136W AND 140W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN
89W AND 98W, FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 102W AND 109W, FROM 04N TO
07N BETWEEN 106W AND 111W, AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 112W AND 124W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND SURFACE RIDGING TO THE
WEST IS SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE NW-N WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO THE NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO, AND MODERATE TO FRESH
SE-S WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LOCALLY STRONG N OF 29N. A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER DISCUSSION WATERS IS
SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS. MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WITH HEIGHTS OF 5-7 FT IN S-SW SWELL. IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, SEAS ARE MAINLY 2-4 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, PULSING TO LOCALLY FRESH SPEEDS AT
NIGHT. GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NEAR THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR,
REACHING TO LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THU. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN
CABO CORRIENTES AND TEHUNATEPEC. MODERATE SEAS IN MAINLY
SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
SLIGHT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS IN
S-SW SWELL. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA AHEAD OF A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ANALYZED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WINDS AND
SEAS MAY BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR THESE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
OCCURRING OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA NEAR ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE S TO SE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN
ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST SUN NIGHT.
MODERATE WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH IN DIURNAL OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE TROUGH, REMNANT OF INVEST EP93, IS NEAR 140W. THE MOST
CONCENTRATED ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS PUSHED W OF 140W WHILE
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS LINGER FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 136W AND
140W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL, WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG 28N/29W WHICH IS HELPING TO
WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH RIDGING ALONG 24N/25N. SPORADIC
CONVECTION, SOME ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING TROPICAL WAVES, IS NEAR
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE REMNANTS OF FORMER INVEST EP93, WILL MOVE
FARTHER WEST OF 140W LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL, EXCEPT SEAS
BUILDING TO ROUGH SOUTH OF AND NEAR THE EQUATOR AND EAST OF 120W
IN NEW SOUTHERLY SWELLS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS MAY
PULSE TO FRESH IN THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS AT TIMES. LOOKING
AHEAD, YET ANOTHER SET OF SOUTHERLY SWELL MAY BUILD SEAS TO ROUGH
OVER THE SAME AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THEN DECAYING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LEWITSKY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page