406
AXPZ20 KNHC 180338
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUN 18 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AXIS OF A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES THE CENTRAL PART OF PANAMA AND INTO
THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE PACIFIC BASIN ALONG 78W. IT IS
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS AHEAD OF THE AXIS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 82W AND 89W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 93W NORTH OF 03N TO INLAND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE WAVE
FROM 12N TO 14N.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 111.5W FROM 04N TO 16N. IT
IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM EAST OF THE WAVE FROM 04N TO 07N, AND WITHIN
60 NM WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 06.5N TO 09N.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA WESTWARD
TO NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO THE COAST AT 10.5N86W, THEN TO 13N103W
AND TO 07N118W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N118W TO 07N130W TO
BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 136W-140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
104W-106W, AND WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 106W-109W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS
THE LENGTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND SURFACE
RIDGING TO THE WEST IS SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE NW-N WINDS
OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO, AND
MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, LOCALLY STRONG N OF 29N. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REMAINDER DISCUSSION WATERS IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS. MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH
HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL. SEAS ARE 2 TO 4 FT
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT IN
LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF AND
AT THE ENTRANCE.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, PULSING TO LOCALLY FRESH SPEEDS AT
NIGHT. GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NEAR THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR,
REACHING TO LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THU. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN
CABO CORRIENTES AND TEHUNATEPEC DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODERATE SEAS IN MAINLY SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, SLIGHT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS DUE
TO LONG-PERIOD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA EXTENDING OFFSHORE FOR 60 NM. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM EL SALVADOR
AND SOUTHEASTERN HONDURAS SOUTHEASTWARD TO OFFSHORE NICARAGUA
FOR 100 NM. THIS ACTIVITY ALSO REACHES TO JUST INLAND NICARAGUA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE S TO SE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN
ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST SUN NIGHT.
MODERATE WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH IN DIURNAL OFFSHORE FLOW IN
THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS NEAR 140W EARLIER HAS CONTINUED TO
PULL FARTHER AWAY FROM THE DISCUSSION AREA. IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH, LATEST SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA PASSES GENERALLY
SHOW LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE ITCZ
TO NEAR 12N WEST OF 130W, MOSTLY FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
FROM 12N TO 15N WEST OF 137W, GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS
FROM 15N TO 21N WEST OF 130W, AND LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS NORTH OF 21N WEST OF ABOUT AS RIDGE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG
23N/24N WEST OF ABOUT 120W. A WEAK TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR
30N132W TO WEST OF THE AREA AT 28N140W. THE SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH
OF 30N WEST OF THE TROUGH. LATEST SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA AND SOFAR
OCEAN SPOTTER BUOYS REVEAL SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE WATERS WATERS
W OF 125W AND 4 TO 6 FT EAST OF 125W.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF 16N WEST OF 120W.
FOR THE FORECAST, SEAS WILL BUILD TO ROUGH STATE SOUTH OF AND
NEAR THE EQUATOR AND EAST OF 120W BEGINNING SAT AS A NEW SET OF
SOUTHERLY SWELL BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THIS PART OF THE AREA.
WINDS MAY PULSE TO FRESH IN THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE, LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN AND WINDS
AND SEAS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AGUIRRE
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