115
AXPZ20 KNHC 180852
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUN 18 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0845 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AXIS OF A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
TROPICAL WAVE CROSSES THE NORTHERN PART OF PANAMA AND INTO THE
FAR EASTERN PART OF THE PACIFIC BASIN ALONG 82.5W. IT IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED, WEAKENING MODERATE
CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE AXIS FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 82W AND
89W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W/95W NORTH OF 02N TO THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION. IT MS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15 KT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM WEST OF THE AXIS
FROM 06N TO 09N.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 112/113W FROM 03N TO 16N.
IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EAST OF THE WAVE FROM
04N TO 07N, AND WITHIN 60 NM WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 08N TO 11N.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA WESTWARD
TO NORTHERN COSTA RICA, THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N90W AND
NORTHWESTWARD TO 14N102.5W AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO 08N119W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N119W TO 07N130W AND TO BEYOND 08N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO
09N BETWEEN THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 77W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 114W-120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CALIFORNIA/NEVADA BORDER
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND
ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND SURFACE RIDGING TO THE WEST IS
SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OVER THE
WATERS NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO, AND MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH WINDS OVER MOST SECTIONS OF HE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER DISCUSSION WATERS
IS SUPPORTING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST SWELL ARE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS ARE 2 TO 4
FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 3 TO 5
FT IN LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
GULF AND AT ITS ENTRANCE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO, AND WITHIN 60 NM OFFSHORE MEXICO BETWEEN
PUERTO ANGEL AND ACAPULCO.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, EXCEPT PULSING TO
LOCALLY FRESH SPEEDS AT NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NEAR THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND
TEHUNATEPEC DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE SEAS IN MAINLY
SOUTHERLY SWELL CHANGE LITTLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AS SLIGHT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MOSTLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS DUE
TO LONG-PERIOD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMSALONG THE COAST OF GUATEMALA BETWEEN 90W AND 91W.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OFFSHORE COSTA RICA.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST
SUN NIGHT. MODERATE WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH IN DIURNAL OFFSHORE
FLOW IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTHWEST SWELL ARE FORECAST
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS NEAR 140W EARLIER HAS CONTINUED TO
PULL FARTHER AWAY FROM THE DISCUSSION AREA. IN THE WAKE OF
THE TROUGH, LATEST SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA PASSES GENERALLY
SHOW LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE ITCZ
TO NEAR 12N WEST OF 130W, MOSTLY FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
FROM 12N TO 15N WEST OF 137W, GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS
FROM 15N TO 21N WEST OF 130W, AND LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS NORTH OF 21N WEST OF ABOUT AS RIDGE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG
23N/24N WEST OF ABOUT 120W. A WEAK TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR
30N131W TO NEAR 28N140W. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA
INDICATES MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF 30N WEST OF
THE TROUGH. LATEST SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA AND SOFAR OCEAN
SPOTTER BUOYS REVEAL SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE WATERS WATERS
WEST F 125W AND 4 TO 6 FT EAST OF 125W.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH OF 14N WEST OF ABOUT 118W.
FOR THE FORECAST, SEAS WILL BUILD TO ROUGH STATE SOUTH OF AND
NEAR THE EQUATOR, AND ALSO EAST OF 120W BEGINNING SAT AS A NEW
SET OF SOUTHERLY SWELL BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THIS PART OF THE
AREA. WINDS MAY PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS IN THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS
AT TIMES THROUGH SAT. OTHERWISE, LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED IN AND WINDS AND SEAS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AGUIRRE
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