357
AXPZ20 KNHC 181454
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUN 18 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1400 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84.5W FROM 01N NORTHWARD TO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA, CONTINUING INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING AT AROUND 15-20 KT. ANY NEARBY
CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W FROM 01N NORTHWARD TO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, MOVING VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD. ANY NEARBY CONVECTION
IS DESCRIBED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 112.5W FROM 01N NORTHWARD TO 19N NEAR
THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AROUND 5 KT.
ANY NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH
BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA TO ACROSS
PANAMA INTO THE PACIFIC NEAR 09N84W TO 08.5N88.5W TO 14N102W TO
07.5N119W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07.5N119W TO BEYOND 06.5N140W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W, FROM 06N TO 17N BETWEEN
92.5W AND 99W, FROM 05N TO 16N BETWEEN 107W AND 118W, FROM 07.5N
TO 12.5N BETWEEN 118W AND 127.5W, AND FROM 04.5N TO 10.5N BETWEEN
128W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM SW ARIZONA SOUTHEASTWARD TO
ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHILE RIDGING IS WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THIS PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE
TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH NW WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA MAINLY
NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO, WITH SIMILAR WINDS BUT OUT OF THE SE
DIRECTION IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
EXISTS ELSEWHERE AND TO THE SOUTH RESULTING IN MAINLY GENTLE
WINDS OFFSHORE THE REMAINDER OF MEXICO. SEAS ARE MODERATE AT 4-6
FT HEIGHTS IN MAINLY LONG PERIOD S-SW SWELL. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, SEAS ARE MAINLY 2-4 FT. SOME CONVECTION IS PRESENT
OFFSHORE AND NEAR SOUTHERN MEXICO MAINLY DUE TO A PASSING
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE
HIGHER IN OR NEAR ANY CONVECTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, EXCEPT PULSING TO
LOCALLY FRESH SPEEDS AT NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NEAR THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND
TEHUNATEPEC DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE SEAS IN MAINLY
SOUTHERLY SWELL CHANGE LITTLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL
BE MAINLY SLIGHT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
DIURNAL OFFSHORE WINDS OF MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO ARE WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
GENTLE TO MODERATE SE-S WINDS ARE FOUND OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS ARE FOUND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE MODERATE AT MAINLY
4-6 FT IN S-SW SWELL, EXCEPT 3-4 FT OFFSHORE WESTERN COLOMBIA.
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR THE MONSOON
TROUGH. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE HIGHER IN OR NEAR ANY CONVECTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST
SUN NIGHT. MODERATE WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS IN DIURNAL
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH AT LEAST
MON NIGHT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN
SOUTHWEST SWELL ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 25N. THIS RIDGING COMBINED WITH LOWER
PRESSURES TO THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ITCZ SUPPORTS A BELT OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES FROM 09N
TO 20N WEST OF 117W. ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ITCZ, WINDS ARE MAINLY GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE. SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ, MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE 7-9 FT ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF 04N
BETWEEN 100W AND 120W IN SOUTHERLY SWELLS, AND MAINLY 5-7 FT
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS DOMINATED BY LONG PERIOD S-SW
SWELL, MIXED WITH SE SWELL E OF 115W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE CAN BE FOUND ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. WINDS AND SEAS MAY
BE HIGHER IN OR NEAR ANY CONVECTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE OLD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
THEN, SEAS WILL BUILD TO ROUGH AGAIN SOUTH OF AND NEAR THE
EQUATOR AND EAST OF 120W BEGINNING SAT AS A NEW SET OF SOUTHERLY
SWELL BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THIS PART OF THE AREA. WINDS MAY
PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS IN THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE, LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN AND WINDS AND
SEAS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LEWITSKY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page