413
AXPZ20 KNHC 181955
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUN 18 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W FROM 01N NORTHWARD TO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA, NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS, CONTINUING INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING AT AROUND 10 KT. ANY
NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94.5W FROM 01N NORTHWARD TO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, MOVING VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 5 KT. ANY
NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 113W FROM 01N NORTHWARD TO 19N NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, MOVING VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD AROUND 5 KT.
ANY NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA TO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA INTO THE PACIFIC NEAR 09N84W
TO 14N104W TO 07N124W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N124W TO BEYOND
06N140W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITHIN 180 TO 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ITCZ ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THOSE WATERS, SOMEWHAT ENHANCED BY
THE TROPICAL WAVES NOTED ABOVE.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR SW ARIZONA SOUTHEASTWARD
TO ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS WHILE
RIDGING IS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS PRESSURE PATTERN
IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW-N WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
OFFSHORE THE PENINSULA AS WELL AS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS ELSEWHERE AND TO THE SOUTH
RESULTING IN MAINLY GENTLE WINDS OFFSHORE THE REMAINDER OF
MEXICO. SEAS ARE MODERATE AT 4-6 FT HEIGHTS IN MAINLY LONG PERIOD
S-SW SWELL. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, SEAS ARE MAINLY 1-3 FT.
SOME CONVECTION IS PRESENT OFFSHORE AND NEAR SOUTHERN MEXICO
MAINLY DUE TO A PASSING TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE HIGHER IN OR NEAR ANY
CONVECTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, EXCEPT PULSING TO
LOCALLY FRESH SPEEDS AT NIGHT THROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INSIDE THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NEAR THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND
TEHUNATEPEC DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE SEAS IN MAINLY
SOUTHERLY SWELL CHANGE LITTLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL
BE MAINLY SLIGHT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LOOKING AHEAD, GAP
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MAY PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG
STARTING LATE TU NIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE OFFSHORE EASTERLY WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.
GENTLE TO MODERATE SE-S WINDS ARE FOUND OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS ARE FOUND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE MODERATE AT MAINLY
4-6 FT IN S-SW SWELL, EXCEPT 3-4 FT OFFSHORE WESTERN COLOMBIA.
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR THE MONSOON
TROUGH. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE HIGHER IN OR NEAR ANY CONVECTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODERATE WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS IN DIURNAL
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE IMMEDIATE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH AT LEAST
TUE NIGHT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN
SOUTHWEST SWELL ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 26N WITH NE TO SW TROUGHING FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 30N130W. THIS PRESSURE PATTERN
COMBINED WITH LOWER PRESSURES TO THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ SUPPORTS A BELT OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADES FROM 09N TO 20N WEST OF 120W. ELSEWHERE NORTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ, WINDS ARE MAINLY GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ, MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE 7-9 FT ACROSS THE
WATERS SOUTH OF 06N BETWEEN 101W AND 121W IN SOUTHERLY SWELLS,
AND MAINLY 5-7 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS DOMINATED BY
LONG PERIOD S-SW SWELL, MIXED WITH SE SWELL E OF 115W. SEAS ARE
LOCALLY FRESH IN THE BELT OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE
CAN BE FOUND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. WINDS
AND SEAS MAY BE HIGHER IN OR NEAR ANY CONVECTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE OLD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DECAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
THEN, SEAS WILL BUILD TO ROUGH AGAIN SOUTH OF AND NEAR THE
EQUATOR AND EAST OF 120W BEGINNING SAT AS A NEW SET OF SOUTHERLY
SWELL BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THIS PART OF THE AREA. WINDS MAY
PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS IN THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE, LITTLE OVERALL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN AND WINDS AND
SEAS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LEWITSKY
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