495
AXPZ20 KNHC 192106
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUN 19 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W/89W, SOUTH OF 16N, MOVING WEST AT 5
TO 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 12N
BETWEEN 87W AND 90W, AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W, SOUTH OF 15N, MOVING WEST AT 5 TO 10
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W, AND FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN
100W AND 110W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 115W, SOUTH OF 18N, MOVING WEST AT 5 TO 10
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
07N TO 16N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N95W TO 13N113 TO
06N127W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 06N127W TO BEYOND 06N140W.
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES,
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN
127W AND 132W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N WINDS N OF CABO SAN
LAZARO, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS BETWEEN CABO SAN LAZARO AND
CABO SAN LUCAS. SEAS ARE MODERATE WITH THESE WINDS. IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE SEEN PER
SCATTEROMETER DATA WITH SLIGHT SEAS, EXCEPT NEAR THE ENTRANCE TO
THE GULF WHERE SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT IN SW SWELL ARE NOTED. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, INCLUDING THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PROMOTING GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS, EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY FRESH SPEEDS PULSING AT NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL FORCE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED, WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 OR 9 FT BY WED NIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT ARE
FOUND SOUTH OF 03N. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL PREVAIL. HIGHER WINDS ARE NOTED NEAR
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, MODERATE
TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTHWEST SWELL ARE FORECAST
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A RIDGE DOMINATE MOST OF THE FORECAST REGION N OF 15N AND W OF
110W, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE TRADE WIND
ZONE, PARTICULARLY W OF 130W. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, ADDITIONAL PULSES OF SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS E OF 120W GENERATING MODERATE
TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
THE AREA. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.
GR
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