164
AXPZ20 KNHC 200841
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JUN 20 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0835 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W, SOUTH OF 16N, MOVING WEST AT 5 KT.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W, SOUTH OF 15N, MOVING WEST AT 5 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
FROM 02N TO 13N AND BETWEEN 93W AND 103W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 117W, SOUTH OF 18N, MOVING WEST AT 5 TO
10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
PRESENT FROM 04N TO 17N AND BETWEEN 107W AND 125W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR
10N85W TO 07N92W TO 15N104W TO 04N130W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM
04N130W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
EVIDENT SOUTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 125W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NW WINDS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO AND OFF CABO SAN LUCAS. SEAS IN THESE
WATERS ARE 5-7 FT. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATE
THAT MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE FOUND IN THE REST OF THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT IN THE WATERS DESCRIBED.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROMOTING
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS, EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY FRESH
SPEEDS PULSING AT NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL FORCE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
NIGHT, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 OR 9 FT BY WED NIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO 90W. FARTHER
SOUTH, MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING
SOUTH OF 02S. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS WILL FRESHEN TO STRONG SPEEDS STARTING LATE MON WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 OR 9 FT BY LATE TUE. THE GAP WINDS IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL PRODUCE SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE FAR OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA BY MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE, MAINLY MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA EXTENDS A
WEAK RIDGE INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC.
MODERATE NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING FROM 08N TO 22N
AND WEST OF 125W. IN THE MEANTIME, MODERATE SE WINDS AND A CROSS
EQUATORIAL SWELL PRODUCING SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE NOTED SOUTH OF 05N
AND EAST OF 120W. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, ADDITIONAL PULSES OF SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS E OF 120W GENERATING MODERATE
TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DELGADO
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