494
AXPZ20 KNHC 201603
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUN 20 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W, SOUTH OF 16N, MOVING WEST AT 5 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 03N TO 12N BETWEEN
87W AND 92W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W, SOUTH OF 15N, MOVING WEST AT 5 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED
FROM 05N TO 13N AND BETWEEN 96W AND 102W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 118W, SOUTH OF 18N, MOVING WEST AT 5 TO
10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
PRESENT FROM 05N TO 10N AND BETWEEN 115W AND 120W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 13N105W TO 07N130W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N130W TO BEYOND 06N140W. IN ADDITION TO THE
CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVES DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION
ABOVE, SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 13N TO 16N
BETWEEN 102W AND 109W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A MODERATE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE MEXICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. AN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE PASS SHOWED GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ACROSS THE
REGION, EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY FRESH WINDS OFF CABO SAN LUCAS AND
NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE 5-7 FT IN NW
SWELL OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO, AND 3-5 FT
ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR 1-3 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROMOTING
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS, EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY FRESH
SPEEDS PULSING AT NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL FORCE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
NIGHT, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 OR 9 FT BY WED NIGHT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO 90W. FARTHER
SOUTH, MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING
SOUTH OF 02S. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS WILL FRESHEN TO STRONG SPEEDS STARTING LATE MON WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 OR 9 FT BY LATE TUE. THE GAP WINDS IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL PRODUCE SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE FAR OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA BY MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE, MAINLY MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A MODERATE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF
20N. MODERATE NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING FROM 08N
TO 22N AND WEST OF 125W. IN THE MEANTIME, MODERATE SE WINDS AND A
CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL PRODUCING SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE NOTED SOUTH
OF 05N AND EAST OF 120W. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, ADDITIONAL PULSES OF SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS E OF 120W GENERATING MODERATE
TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
CHRISTENSEN
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