937
AXPZ20 KNHC 202053
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JUN 20 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2040 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN PACIFIC, EXTENDING ALONG
80W NORTH OF 05N THROUGH CENTRAL PANAMA, MOVING WEST AT 20 TO 25
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 08N EAST OF 86W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W, SOUTH OF 16N, DRIFTING WEST AT 5
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 03N TO 06N
BETWEEN 88W AND 93W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 101W, SOUTH OF 15N, MOVING WEST AT 5 TO
10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 05N TO 14N AND BETWEEN 97W AND 103W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 119W, SOUTH OF 18N, MOVING WEST AT 5 TO
10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
PRESENT FROM 13N TO 16N AND BETWEEN 117W AND 120W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N95W TO 12N110W TO 07N130W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N130W TO BEYOND 06N140W. CONVECTION IS
DESCRIBED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A MODERATE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE MEXICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF 20N, COMPROMISED IN PART BY A WEAK 1018
MB LOW PRESSURE OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE PASS SHOWED GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ACROSS THE
REGION, EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY FRESH WINDS OFF CABO SAN LUCAS AND
NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE 5-7 FT IN NW
SWELL OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO, AND 3-5 FT
ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR 1-3 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUN NIGHT,
AND GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ELSEWHERE. WINDS OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH STARTING MON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. LOOKING AHEAD, EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO 90W. A PULSE
OF FRESH GAP WINDS WAS CONFIRMED BY A LATE MORNING SCATTEROMETER
PASS. FARTHER SOUTH, MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF 02S. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS WILL FRESHEN TO STRONG SPEEDS STARTING LATE MON WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 OR 9 FT BY LATE TUE. THE GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL PRODUCE SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS
OF GUATEMALA BY MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE, MAINLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A MODERATE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF
20N. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED THIS PATTERN IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 08N TO 20N
WEST OF 125W, WHERE CONCURRENT AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS SHOWED
5-7 FT SEAS. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND 5-6 FT SEAS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR 6-8 FT SEAS IN SW SWELL NEAR THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 100W AND 125W.
FOR THE FORECAST, ADDITIONAL PULSES OF SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS EAST OF 125W GENERATING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED IN WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA.
LOOKING AHEAD, MOST WEATHER MODELS ARE INDICATING BROAD LOW
PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 100W
POSSIBLY STARTING MID WEEK, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
CHRISTENSEN
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