662
AXPZ20 KNHC 210305
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUN 21 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0305 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN PACIFIC, EXTENDING ALONG
82W, SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 08N AND EAST OF 86W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W, SOUTH OF 15N, DRIFTING WESTWARD AT
5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 02N TO 15N AND
BETWEEN 90W AND 100W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 103W, SOUTH OF 16N, MOVING WESTWARD AT
5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 03N
TO 15N AND BETWEEN 100W AND 115W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 119W, SOUTH OF 18N, DRIFTING WESTWARD
AT 5 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 12N111W TO 06N131W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N131W TO BEYOND 05N140W. CONVECTION IS
DESCRIBED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG RIDGE NORTH OF OUR
WATERS AND LOWER PRESSURES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. WINDS MAY REACH STRONG SPEEDS
NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUN NIGHT, AND
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ELSEWHERE. WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WILL DIMINISH STARTING MON AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AHEAD OF
A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. LOOKING AHEAD,
EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY MIDWEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO SUSTAINS
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS,
EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO 89W. FARTHER SOUTH, MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF 02S. ELSEWHERE,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL FRESHEN TO STRONG SPEEDS STARTING LATE MON
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 OR 9 FT BY LATE TUE. THE GAP WINDS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL PRODUCE SEAS TO 9 FT IN THE FAR
OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA BY MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE, MAINLY
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF OUR WATERS EXTENDS INTO THE REMAINDER OF
THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 120W.
MEANWHILE, MODERATE SE WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE NOTED SOUTH
OF 05N. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ADDITIONAL PULSES OF SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS EAST OF 125W GENERATING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED IN WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA.
LOOKING AHEAD, MOST WEATHER MODELS ARE INDICATING BROAD LOW
PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 100W
POSSIBLY STARTING MID WEEK, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
DELGADO
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