817
AXPZ20 KNHC 210837
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUN 21 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W, SOUTH OF 19N, MOVING WESTWARD AT
20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT NORTH OF 03N AND
EAST OF 88W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W, SOUTH OF 15N, DRIFTING WESTWARD AT
5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 02N TO 14N
AND BETWEEN 90W AND 99W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 104W, SOUTH OF 17N, MOVING WESTWARD AT
5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 03N TO
15N AND BETWEEN 99W AND 115W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 119W, SOUTH OF 18N, DRIFTING WESTWARD
AT 5 KT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 12N115W TO 07N129W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N129W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 02N TO 09N AND WEST OF 121W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS.
SEAS ARE 5-7 FT IN THESE WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FOUND
NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS WIND FROM THE PACIFIC WATERS MOVE
THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN PASSAGES. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH MON
NIGHT, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ELSEWHERE. WINDS OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH STARTING TUE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. LOOKING AHEAD, EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY MIDWEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATE THAT MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO 89W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 4-7
FT. FARTHER SOUTH, MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF 03N. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS WILL FRESHEN TO STRONG SPEEDS STARTING LATE MON WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 OR 9 FT BY LATE TUE. THE GAP WINDS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL PRODUCE SEAS TO 9 FT IN THE FAR OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA BY MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE, MAINLY MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF OUR WATERS
EXTENDS INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC.
GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND
NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 115W. MEANWHILE, MODERATE SE WINDS AND
SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE NOTED SOUTH OF 05N. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ADDITIONAL PULSES OF SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS EAST OF 125W GENERATING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED IN WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA.
LOOKING AHEAD, MOST WEATHER MODELS ARE INDICATING BROAD LOW
PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 100W
POSSIBLY STARTING MID WEEK, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
DELGADO
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