132
AXPZ20 KNHC 211547
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUN 21 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W, SOUTH OF 19N, MOVING WESTWARD AT
20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 03N TO 06N
BETWEEN 85W AND 90W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W, SOUTH OF 15N, DRIFTING WESTWARD AT
5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 03N TO 06N
AND BETWEEN 93W AND 98W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 105W, SOUTH OF 17N, MOVING WESTWARD AT
5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 05N
TO 07N AND BETWEEN 102W AND 105W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 120W, SOUTH OF 18N, DRIFTING WESTWARD
AT 5 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EVIDENT NEAR THIS WAVE.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 13N110W TO 08N130W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N130W TO 06N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM 04N TO 08N EAST OF
85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 15N
BETWEEN 85W AND 110W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
AN EARLY MORNING SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED MODERATE
NW WINDS IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS ARE 5-7 FT
IN THESE WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FOUND NORTH OF PUNTA
EUGENIA. LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AS WIND FROM THE PACIFIC WATERS MOVE THROUGH THE
MOUNTAIN PASSAGES. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH MON
NIGHT, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ELSEWHERE. WINDS OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH STARTING TUE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA MON NIGHT INTO TUE AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH. LOOKING AHEAD, EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY
MIDWEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATE THAT MODERATE
TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO 90W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE
4-7 FT. FARTHER SOUTH, MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF 03N. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS WILL FRESHEN TO STRONG SPEEDS STARTING LATE MON WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 OR 9 FT BY LATE TUE. THE GAP WINDS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL PRODUCE SEAS TO 9 FT IN THE FAR OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA BY MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE, MAINLY MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF OUR WATERS
EXTENDS INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC.
GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND
NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 115W. MEANWHILE, MODERATE SE WINDS AND
SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE NOTED SOUTH OF 05N. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ADDITIONAL PULSES OF SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS EAST OF 125W GENERATING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED IN WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA.
LOOKING AHEAD, MOST WEATHER MODELS ARE INDICATING BROAD LOW
PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 100W
POSSIBLY STARTING MID WEEK, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
CHRISTENSEN
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