676
AXPZ20 KNHC 212039
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUN 21 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2030 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W, SOUTH OF 19N, MOVING WESTWARD AT
20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
PRESENT FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W, SOUTH OF 15N, DRIFTING WESTWARD AT
5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 04N TO 08N
AND BETWEEN 93W AND 98W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 106W, SOUTH OF 17N, MOVING WESTWARD AT
5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 05N
TO 07N AND BETWEEN 103W AND 107W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 121W, SOUTH OF 18N, DRIFTING WESTWARD
AT 5 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EVIDENT NEAR THIS WAVE.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N95W TO 14N105W TO 08N130W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W, AND FROM
08N TO 11N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED MODERATE NW WINDS
IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS ARE 5-7 FT IN THESE
WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. ELSEWHERE,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH MON
NIGHT, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ELSEWHERE. WINDS OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH STARTING TUE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TUE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. LOOKING AHEAD, EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY MIDWEEK, AS
PRESSURE LOWERS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE TROPICS.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A PLUME OF 15 KT EASTERLY GAP WINDS AND SEAS TO 6 FT ARE EVIDENT
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO 90W.
FARTHER SOUTH, MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
OCCURRING SOUTH OF 03N. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS WILL FRESHEN TO STRONG SPEEDS STARTING LATE MON WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 OR 9 FT BY LATE TUE. THE GAP WINDS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL PRODUCE SEAS TO 9 FT IN THE FAR OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA BY MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE, MAINLY MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF OUR WATERS EXTENDS
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC NORTH OF 20N.
GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND
NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 115W. FARTHER SOUTH, LONG PERIOD SW
SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7-9 FT ARE MOVING INTO THE WATERS
SOUTH OF 02N BETWEEN 85W AND 125W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ADDITIONAL PULSES OF SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS EAST OF 125W GENERATING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED IN WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA.
LOOKING AHEAD, MOST WEATHER MODELS ARE INDICATING BROAD LOW
PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 90W AND 100W
POSSIBLY STARTING MID WEEK, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
CHRISTENSEN
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