188
AXPZ20 KNHC 220403
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUN 22 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0350 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W, SOUTH OF 16N, MOVING WESTWARD AT
15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
PRESENT FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 82W AND 94W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W, SOUTH OF 15N, DRIFTING WESTWARD AT
5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 05N TO 09N
AND BETWEEN 94W AND 100W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 106W, SOUTH OF 16N, MOVING WESTWARD AT
5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 07N TO
13N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 122W, SOUTH OF 17N, DRIFTING WESTWARD
AT 5 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EVIDENT NEAR THIS WAVE.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 13N110W TO 09N125W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N125W AND BEYOND 08N140W. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES, SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AND FROM
07N TO 12N BETWEEN 109W AND 118W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG WITH 5-7 FT SEAS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
N OF CABO SAN LAZARO. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH MON
NIGHT, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ELSEWHERE. WINDS OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH STARTING TUE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TUE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. LOOKING AHEAD, EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY MIDWEEK, AS
PRESSURE LOWERS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE TROPICS.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A SMALL PLUME OF 15 KT EASTERLY GAP WINDS AND SEAS TO 5 FT ARE
EVIDENT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION, EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM
TO 88W. FARTHER SOUTH, MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF 03N. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS WILL REACH FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS STARTING LATE MON
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT BY LATE TUE. THE GAP WINDS IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL PRODUCE SEAS TO 9 FT IN THE FAR OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA BY MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE, MAINLY MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF OUR WATERS EXTENDS
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC NORTH OF 20N.
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE FOUND
NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF 115W. FARTHER SOUTH, LONG PERIOD SW
SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7-9 FT ARE MOVING INTO THE WATERS
SOUTH OF 02N BETWEEN 106W AND 120W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, ADDITIONAL PULSES OF SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS EAST OF 125W GENERATING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED IN WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA.
LOOKING AHEAD, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATE
THIS WEEK SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE AFTER THAT TIME WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 KT.
RAMOS
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