939
AXPZ20 KNHC 222134
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUN 22 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W, SOUTH OF 16N, MOVING WESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS PRESENT FROM 05N-12N BETWEEN 86W-93W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 107W, SOUTH OF 17N, MOVING WESTWARD AT
5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 08N-18N BETWEEN 105W-113W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA
RICA TO 12N96W. THE MONSOON TROUGH REFORMS AT 12N111W TO
09N131W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
BEYOND 07N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
IS PRESENT NORTH OF 03N EAST OF 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 05N-12N BETWEEN
86W-93W, FROM 08N-18N BETWEEN 105W-113W, FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN
114W-119W, AND FROM 03N-10N WEST OF 132W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
WINDS ARE NW TO N MODERATE TO FRESH WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, SE MODERATE FO FRESH OFFSHORE OF
MANZANILLO, AND SE MODERATE TO FRESH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE GENTLE WORK WEAKER. SEAS 4-6 FT IN SW SWELL
OVER ALL OF THE PACIFIC WATERS AND ARE 2-4 FT OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND THE SW UNITED STATES IS PROMOTING MODERATE TO FRESH
SE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BEFORE
DIMINISHING. LOWERING PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF SE MEXICO WILL HELP
INDUCE A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT FROM TOMORROW NIGHT
THROUGH FRI. THESE N TO NE WINDS SHOULD PEAK AT STRONG TO LOCALLY
NEAR GALE ON WED AND WED NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS
THE MEXICAN OFFSHORES SHOULD BE QUIESCENT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WINDS ARE E MODERATE TO FRESH OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION.
ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE GENTLE OR WEAKER. SEAS ARE 4-6 FT IN SW
SWELL. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
IS PRESENT NORTH OF 03N EAST OF 83W.
FOR THE FORECAST, LOWERING PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF SE MEXICO AND
CENTRAL AMERICA WILL HELP INDUCE A GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION GAP
WIND EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT, LASTING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THESE NE WINDS SHOULD PEAK AT STRONG FROM TOMORROW THROUGH THU.
ELSEWHERE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIESCENT UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE WATERS WEST OF COLOMBIA AND SOUTH OF PANAMA THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT. LARGE S SWELL SHOULD REACH THE EQUATORIAL WATERS
WED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 30N130W TO 20N110W ALONG WITH
LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE ITCZ IS FORCING GENERALLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE NE TRADES. WINDS SOUTH OF THE ITCZ ARE GENERALLY
MODERATE SE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED TODAY WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W, NOW KNOWN
AS INVEST EP94. WINDS ARE SE MODERATE TO FRESH FROM 15-20N
BETWEEN 103W-109W. LARGE SW SWELL ARE OCCURRING JUST SOUTH OF
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 100W-120W LEADING TOWARD 8-9 FT SEAS.
ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE GENTLE OR WEAKER AND SEAS ARE 5-7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, EP94 IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
EAST PACIFIC BASIN, AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME
UNFAVORABLE LATE THIS WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATE THIS WEEK SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AFTER THAT TIME WHILE IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT.
LANDSEA
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