044
AXPZ20 KNHC 230252
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUN 23 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR PANAMA ALONG
ROUGHLY 78W, MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W, SOUTH OF 16N, MOVING WESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT
FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 92W AND 96W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 109W, SOUTH OF 17N, MOVING WESTWARD AT
5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W 09N90W TO 12N100W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N120W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN
80W AND 100W, AND FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
WEAK RIDGING PERSISTS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. A TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM MODEST LOW PRESSURE OVER THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE NW WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA, WITH OCCASIONALLY FRESH NW
WINDS BETWEEN PUNTA EUGENIA AND CABO SAN LAZARO. RECENT ALTIMETER
SATELLITE PASSES INDICATE COMBINED SEAS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA ARE
4-6 FT, WHICH INCLUDES A COMPONENT OF NW SWELL. GENTLE SE
BREEZES AND ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH 1-3 FT
SEAS. FARTHER SOUTH, AN AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS
INDICATED THE NORTHERN END OF A TROUGH ALONG ROUGHLY 107W, HALF
WAY BETWEEN SOCORRO ISLAND AND CABO CORRIENTES. THE SATELLITE
PASS CONFIRMED MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS BETWEEN THE TROUGH AXIS
AND THE COAST, AND SEAS IN THAT AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO 5-6 FT.
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND 4-5 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE
OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE ONGOING PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO
FRESH NW WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH TOMORROW, AND MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TOMORROW NIGHT. LOWERING PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL HELP INDUCE A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND
EVENT FROM TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH FRI. THESE N TO NE WINDS SHOULD
PEAK AT STRONG TO LOCALLY NEAR GALE ON WED AND WED NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORES SHOULD BE
QUIESCENT, EXCEPT FOR LARGE SWELL OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
AN AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED MODERATE TO FRESH GAP
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA, WHERE SEAS ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 5-6 FT. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE
OFF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH, ACCOMPANIED
BY OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 3-5 FT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, LOWERING PRESSURE WELL SOUTH OF SE MEXICO AND
CENTRAL AMERICA WILL HELP INDUCE A GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION GAP
WIND EVENT BEGINNING TONIGHT, LASTING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THESE NE WINDS SHOULD PEAK AT STRONG FROM TOMORROW THROUGH THU.
ELSEWHERE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIESCENT UNTIL THE END OF THE
WEEK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE WATERS WEST OF COLOMBIA AND SOUTH OF PANAMA THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT. LARGE S SWELL SHOULD REACH THE EQUATORIAL WATERS
WED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE WATERS NORTH OF 15N, SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND 6-7 FT SEAS FROM 10N TO 25N, WEST
OF 120W. GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE WITH 4-6
FT SEAS, EXCEPT FOR 6-8 FT SEAS IN SW SWELL SOUTH OF 05N AND EAST
OF 90W.
FOR THE FORECAST, 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY NEAR 12N108W AND
NAMED EP94, IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 KT, AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME
UNFAVORABLE LATE THIS WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATE THIS WEEK SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE
OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AFTER THAT TIME WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT.
CHRISTENSEN
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