125
AXPZ20 KNHC 231507
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUN 23 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1445 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE EAST PACIFIC (EP94):
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
DISORGANIZED, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE LATE THIS WEEK. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 83W, MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15
KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
SECTION BELOW.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 97W, SOUTH OF 16N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN
THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 109/110W, SOUTH OF 18N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 5-10 KT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THIS TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 16N109.5W. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS LOW. NEARBY
CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 10N85W TO 08N95W TO
13N109W TO 08N123W TO 08N127W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N127W TO
BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 08N E OF 82W, FROM 08N TO 16N BETWEEN 96W
AND 103W, FROM 07N TO 17N BETWEEN 107W AND 120W, AND FROM 01N TO
10N BETWEEN 125W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS WEST OF THE AREA, WHILE A SURFACE TOUGH IS
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ALSO IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE MODERATE OR LESS OVER THE
DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
WEST OF THE AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA
THROUGH TOMORROW, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SE WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TOMORROW NIGHT. GAP WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH FRI. THESE N TO
NE WINDS SHOULD PEAK AT STRONG TO LOCALLY NEAR GALE ON WED AND
WED NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORES
SHOULD BE QUIESCENT, EXCEPT FOR LARGE SWELL OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ARE OVER AND DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AREA, WHERE SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 5-7 FT. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N
OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION GAP WIND EVENT THAT MAY LAST
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FRESH TO STRONG PULSES MAY LAST
THROUGH THU. ELSEWHERE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIESCENT UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS WEST OF COLOMBIA AND SOUTH OF
PANAMA THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE S SWELL SHOULD REACH THE EQUATORIAL
WATERS WED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON EP94.
BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS N
OF THE ITCZ TO 20N AND W OF 130W, WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT
RANGE. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 5-7 FT ARE ELSEWHERE
N OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND
SEAS OF 6-8 FT PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM EP94, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO FORM LATE THIS WEEK SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AFTER THAT TIME, AND IT COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE IT
MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
AL
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