572
AXPZ20 KNHC 231936
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 23 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1930 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE EAST PACIFIC (EP94):
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. BY THURSDAY, THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WHICH
SHOULD END THE CHANCES FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 84W, MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15
KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
SECTION BELOW.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 98W, SOUTH OF 16N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN
THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 111W, SOUTH OF 18N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THIS TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 16N111W. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS LOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N91W TO 13N109W TO
08N127W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N127W TO BEYOND 08N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
01N TO 08N E OF 82W, FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W, FROM
09N TO 16N BETWEEN 98W AND 112W, AND FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN
112W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS WEST OF THE AREA, WHILE A SURFACE TOUGH IS
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ALSO IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO, EXCEPT FRESH TO
STRONG IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE MODERATE OR LESS OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
WEST OF THE AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA
THROUGH TOMORROW, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SE WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TOMORROW NIGHT. GAP WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH FRI. THESE N TO
NE WINDS SHOULD PEAK AT STRONG TO LOCALLY NEAR GALE ON WED AND
WED NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORES
SHOULD BE QUIESCENT, EXCEPT FOR LARGE SWELL OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ARE OVER AND DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AREA, WHERE SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 5-7 FT. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N
OF THE AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION GAP WIND EVENT THAT MAY LAST
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FRESH TO STRONG PULSES MAY LAST
THROUGH THU. ELSEWHERE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIESCENT UNTIL THE
END OF THE WEEK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS WEST OF COLOMBIA AND SOUTH OF
PANAMA THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE S SWELL SHOULD REACH THE EQUATORIAL
WATERS WED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON EP94.
BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS N
OF THE ITCZ TO 20N AND W OF 130W, WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT
RANGE. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 5-7 FT ARE ELSEWHERE
N OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND
SEAS OF 6-8 FT PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM EP94, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO FORM THIS WEEKEND OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE EAST
PACIFIC BASIN. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
AFTER THAT TIME, AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH.
AL
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