490
AXPZ20 KNHC 240259
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUN 24 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0250 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE EAST PACIFIC (EP94):
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
HOWEVER, EARLIER SATELLITE WIND DATA SUGGEST THE SYSTEM LACKS A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KT. BY THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, ENDING ITS CHANCES FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 86W, MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15
KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION
BELOW.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 101W, SOUTH OF 16N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ACTIVE FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 102W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 114W, SOUTH OF 18N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG THIS TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 16.5N113.5W. PLEASE SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATUERS SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS LOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N95W TO 11N115W TO
08N127W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N127W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 84W AND
92W, AND FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 122W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS WEST OF THE AREA, WHILE A SURFACE TOUGH IS
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE ALSO IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO, EXCEPT FRESH TO
STRONG IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE MODERATE OR LESS OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF
THE AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH
TOMORROW. GAP WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
THROUGH FRI. THESE N TO NE WINDS SHOULD PEAK AT STRONG TO LOCALLY
NEAR GALE ON WED AND WED NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS
THE MEXICAN OFFSHORES SHOULD BE QUIESCENT, EXCEPT FOR LARGE
SWELL OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ARE OVER AND DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO AREA, WHERE SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 5-7 FT. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE
AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING
A GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION GAP WIND EVENT THAT MAY LAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIESCENT UNTIL THE END
OF THE WEEK. LARGE S SWELL SHOULD REACH THE EQUATORIAL WATERS
WED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON EP94.
BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS N
OF THE ITCZ TO 20N AND W OF 130W, WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT
RANGE. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 5-7 FT ARE ELSEWHERE
N OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND
SEAS OF 6-8 FT WITH A COMPONENT OF SW SWELL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE
ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM EP94, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO FORM THIS WEEKEND OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE EAST
PACIFIC BASIN. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
AFTER THAT TIME, AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH.
CHRISTENSEN
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