464
AXPZ20 KNHC 240856
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUN 24 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF CLARION ISLAND (EP94):
1008 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 17.5N115W OR ABOUT 60 NM
SSW OF CLARION ISLAND, ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
CENTER. RECENT SATELLITE WIND DATA SUGGEST THE CIRCULATION IS A
LITTLE BETTER DEFINED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE WEST TO
WEST- NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH, AND BY THURSDAY IT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, ENDING ITS CHANCES FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS MAY ACCOMPANY THE LOW PRESSURE
OR REMNANT TROUGH AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ALONG ROUGHLY 20N THROUGH
SAT.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 88W, MOVING WEST AT 15 TO 20
KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
SECTION BELOW.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 102W, SOUTH OF 16N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ACTIVE FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 102W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 115W, SOUTH OF 18N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, EP94, IS ALONG
THIS TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 17.5N115W. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N95W TO 11N115W TO
08N127W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N127W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 84W AND
92W, AND FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 122W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
NEAR-GALE FORCE GAP WINDS ARE LIKELY ONGOING ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING. THESE GAP WINDS ARE DUE TO LOWERING
PRESSURE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS. ROUGH SEAS UP TO
AT LEAST 9 FT ARE BUILDING FARTHER DOWNSTREAM IN RESPONSE TO THE
STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE PLUME OF GAP WINDS. FARTHER WEST, A
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CONFIRMED FRESH TO STRONG
JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CLARION ISLAND, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA KNOWN AS EP94 DESCRIBED IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. CONCURRENT ALTIMETER PASSES SHOWED 5-7
FT SEAS ACROSS THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. FARTHER NORTH, THE
SAME SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH NEAR THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SAN QUINTIN. ELSEWHERE, MOSTLY
GENTLE BREEZES AND 4-6 FT COMBINED SEAS IN A MIX OF SWELL, EXCEPT
FOR 1-3 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, LOWERING PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS IS
INDUCING NEAR-GALE FORCE GAP WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC TODAY, WITH FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS PULSING
MAINLY LATE AT NIGHT THEREAFTER THROUGH FRI NIGHT. ELSEWHERE,
WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORES SHOULD BE QUIESCENT,
EXCEPT FOR LARGE SWELL OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG
GAP WINDS OVER AND DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA, WHERE
SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 5-7 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE
AREA AND THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING
A GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION GAP WIND EVENT THAT MAY LAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN QUIESCENT UNTIL
THE END OF THE WEEK. LARGE S SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE EQUATORIAL
WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON EP94.
BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS N
OF THE ITCZ TO 20N AND W OF 130W, WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT
RANGE. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 5-7 FT ARE ELSEWHERE
N OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND
SEAS OF 6-8 FT WITH A COMPONENT OF SW SWELL PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE
ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM EP94, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO FORM THIS WEEKEND SOUTH OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AFTER THAT TIME,
AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE
IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, A PLUME OF FRESH E TO SE WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS MAY DEVELOP FROM ROUGHLY THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO TO SOUTH OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. FARTHER SOUTH, LARGE SOUTHERLY SWELL TO 8 FT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 90W AND 120W STARTING
THU.
CHRISTENSEN
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